Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
925 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

.AVIATION (11/00Z TO 12/00Z)...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 08Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...FROM ABOUT 08Z TO 12Z...SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
FOG COULD FORM OVER THE REGION...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY...DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH VFR RETURNING AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DEVELOPING.  -MJ
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
UPDATE TO SLOW TIMING OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
JUST ENTERING OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST CWA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY TO
FIRST PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT
TO BE IN SE CWA BY DAWN. REST OF GRIDS ONLY NEEDED MINOR TWEAKS.

SFC FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS LK ERIE...WITH
AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT OVER NORTHERN OH.  H5 LOW
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO WRN NY WITH THUNDER ASSOC WITH UPPER
COLD POOL ACROSS LK ONTARIO.  ISOLD STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA AS AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AND LR
ARE STEEPENING BENEATH COLD CORE.  MANY AREAS STILL SEEING A WARM
LAYER ALOFT...PREVENTING STRONG DEVELOPMENT.

12Z WRF INITIALIZED WELL WITH FRONTAL LOCATION AND H5 LOW AND WILL
FOLLOW FOR SHORT TERM DETAILS.  BOTH RUC/WRF INDICATE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN WITH MAIN PCPN AXIS NOT MOVING IN UNTIL AFTER
00Z.  MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 30-40KTS AND CAPES RISE TO NR 1000
J/KG.  WET-BULBS REMAIN BLO 10KFT.  MAJORITY OF CWA IS NOW OUT OF
THE SLIGHT RISK THANKS TO SLOWER MVMNT...BUT THINK ISOLD SVR STILL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.  WITH STRONGER FLOW THAN YESTERDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT DOESNT LOOK EXTREMELY LIKELY.

HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
FRNT TAKES LONGER TO PUSH THRU.  WILL TAPER POPS OFF TOWARD
12Z...BUT CHC THUNDER REMAINS THRU TUESDAY IN SOUTH AND EAST ZONES
WITH WKNG CLD FRNT LINGERING IN VICINITY.  SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY
OCCUR AS CLDS BEGIN TO ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CAPES PROGGED TO
BE ARND 500 J/KG.

MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON EVOLN OF NEXT SYSTEM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED.  GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER SYSTEM AS IT DOES NOT
BUILD ATLANTIC RIDGE AS STRONG AS WRF DOES.  HOWEVER...WRF HAS
FINALLY SHIFTED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH LOCATION OF SFC LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FNT.  BOTH MODELS BRING BOUNDARY THRU LATE TUE
NIGHT...WITH PCPN DEVELOPING ARND 12Z.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHRAS OFF WED MORNING WITH PCPN FILLING IN DURING THE DAY.
HPC QPF INDICATES 1.00-1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE ON WED WITH PW VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES.  MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO EVOLN OF SYSTEM
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY BY MID-WEEK.  -PB
&&

.LONG RANGE (WED NIGHT - MON)...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THRU THE PERIOD WHICH IS GENERALLY A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME LEFTOVER PRECIP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH SFC WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS VICINITY OF NY AND PA BORDER. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH AND CLEARS THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN INCREASINGLY WARM AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION PUSHES EASTWARD
WITH TEMPS PERHAPS FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK OR HIGHER IN OUR
TYPICAL WARM SPOTS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE
A DRY PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART, BUT WITH WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY...CANNOT RULE OUT SLGT CHC TSRA.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-110730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
328 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1022 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

PAZ038-110315-
BRADFORD PA-
1022 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1017 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF SYLVANIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SYLVANIA AT 1030 PM EDT...
  LEONA AND TROY AT 1035 PM EDT...
  WETONA AND SPRINGFIELD AT 1040 PM EDT...
  EAST SMITHFIELD AND BENTLEY CREEK AT 1045 PM EDT...
  RIGGS AND WILAWANA AT 1050 PM EDT...
  MILAN AND ULSTER AT 1055 PM EDT...
  LITCHFIELD AT 1100 PM EDT...
  WINDHAM AND WEST WARREN AT 1110 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAINFALL
COULD BE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND AN INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.