Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SE ONTARIO IN CONTROL OF
WEATHER INTO TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE CROSSING NY AND PA
WITH FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND A SFC COLD FRONT CREATING CONVECTION
DESPITE THE HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE E AND NE INTO NE PA AND
CENTRAL NY. BORDERLINE SEVERE WITH PENNY HAIL DUE TO LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS REPORTED JUST UPSTREAM IN CTP CWA.

AS THE UL LOW MOVES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING CONVECTION
WILL BE ON THE WANE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RISE AND SO WILL THE
HEIGHTS.

TUESDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE NW AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND A UL TROF. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
SLOW DOWN THE FROPA SO NOW IT WILL BE MIDDAY TO AFTN. DESPITE THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS THINK THAT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THE FRONT PULLS THROUGH QUICKLY WILL BE IN CAA WITH ALIGNED
FLOW OVER WARMING LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
300 FLOW. AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 850 TEMPS GET DOWN TO -8 RAIN COULD
CHANGE TO SNOW. WX GRIDS OF CHC RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO MIX LOOKED
GOOD FROM EARLIER SO LEFT.

WEDNESDAY THE TROF MOVES TO THE EAST SO PROBABLY A DRY DAY WITH WAA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT TOOK A BLEND. FOR MAXES UPPED THE BLEND BY A
FEW DEGREES. MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE COLD SIDE. ANY SUN PUSHES TEMPS
UP QUICKLY. TAC
&&

.AVIATION (24/06Z - 25/06Z)...
MAINLY VFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK (09Z OR
10Z)...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS. A
THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL OCCUR AT KAVP.

LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FORM BY AROUND 10Z...
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. THESE CLOUD BASES SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...WITH VFR RETURNING TO MOST OF THE REGION
BY ABOUT MIDDAY.  -MJ
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
DEPARTING SYSTEM TUE NIGHT WILL DRAG COLD AIR IN BEHIND.  WITH
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C...HAVE ADDED
IN CHC -RA OR -SN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF CNY.  TROF
EAST/RIDGE WEST PATTERN CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY.  GFS AND ECMWF STILL
ADVERTISING REINFORCING WAVE DROPPING INTO FA LATE WED NIGHT.  MINOR
RIDGING WILL GIVE FA BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.  GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON
MAIN FEATURES BUT GFS REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AT H5.  PB
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1220 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

PAZ040-240445-
WAYNE PA-
1220 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY...

* AT 1218 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 8 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF RUTLEDGEDALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CALKINS AT 1225 AM EDT...
  RILEYVILLE AND RUTLEDGEDALE AT 1230 AM EDT...
  LOOKOUT AT 1235 AM EDT...
  HANKINS AND ABRAHAMSVILLE AT 1240 AM EDT...

SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND BECOME SEVERE
...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1224 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

PAZ038-039-043-240530-
BRADFORD PA-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WYOMING PA-
1224 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1218 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.  THIS STORM
  WAS LOCATED NEAR WYALUSING..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SILVARA AND STEVENSVILLE AT 1230 AM EDT...
  BRUSHVILLE AND MESHOPPEN AT 1235 AM EDT...
  WEST AUBURN AND RUSHVILLE AT 1240 AM EDT...
  RUSH AND LAWTON AT 1245 AM EDT...
  SPRINGVILLE AND MIDDLETOWN CENTER AT 1250 AM EDT...
  ELK LAKE AND BIRCHARDVILLE AT 1255 AM EDT...
  NICHOLSON AND LAKE SHERIDAN AT 100 AM EDT...
  MONTROSE AND SOUTH MONTROSE AT 105 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND BECOME SEVERE
...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

TAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

PAZ047-240745-
LUZERNE PA-
302 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO LUZERNE COUNTY...

* AT 301 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM SWEET VALLEY...TO SOUTHWEST OF
  HUNTINGTON MILLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DALLAS AND HARVEYS LAKE AT 310 AM EDT...
  FERN BROOK AT 315 AM EDT...
  ORANGE AND SHICKSHINNY AT 320 AM EDT...
  SHAVERTOWN AND LEE AT 325 AM EDT...
  RANSOM AND GLEN LYON AT 330 AM EDT...
  NANTICOKE AT 335 AM EDT...
  PLYMOUTH AND LYNWOOD AT 340 AM EDT...
  COURTDALE AND WEST WYOMING AT 345 AM EDT...

SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MJ