Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572 IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 9 PM.
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS PA BUT MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
TAMDAR SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OVER NYS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS, BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHOES. BY LATE EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL
WINDS. WITH SFC TROF SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MENTION
FOR SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT IN FAR SE.

MONDAY...FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MUCH WEAKER SFC TO MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW THAN TODAY. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY
CROSS AREA DURING AFTERNOON. TRIGGER FAIRLY WEAK BUT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE IN FAST UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH T85 AROUND 15C
AND PLENTY OF SS, MOST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH GFS/WRF INDICATE MORE SHORT WAVES IN CONTINUED
FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT WITH TIMING RATHER DIFFICULT IN THIS REGIME WILL BROAD
BRUSH LOW CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES AREA FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC MAY PUSH
A PREFRONTAL TROF THROUGH CWA DURING THE MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION (02/18Z TO 03/18Z)...
MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD WITH BKN CIGS FROM 4-5KFT.  SCTD
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING.  AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WITH HIGH
CIRRUS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 01Z.  OCNL MVFR VSBYS BTWN
09-12Z WITH BR DEVELOPING.  WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WSW...GENERALLY
12G18KTS THRU 01Z.  THEN BECOME LGT/VRB INTO MORNING HRS.  -PB

&&

.LONG RANGE (TUE NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
UPPER TROF HANGS BACK TO THE WEST THRU END OF THE WEEK.  LO CHC POPS
EXIST ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.   AS FRONT
PASSES...MOST MOISTURE WILL SHUNT EAST OF FA.  ALTHOUGH H5 TROF
REMAINS WEST IT WILL LIKELY HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO WESTERN NY WED NIGHT AND CONTS TO
INFLUENCE AREA THRU EXTENDED PD.  HAVE SIDED WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN IN
QUICKER MOVEMENT OF TROF AXIS AS IT HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT.  NR
NORMAL TEMPS STILL EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.  -PB

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT
CONKLIN AND WAVERLY.
.PA...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT
SAYRE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-030815-
TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
RIVER FLOODING ON THE SUSQUEHANNA WILL END TODAY EVERYWHERE. SEE
THE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF BECOMING SEVERE. STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE REST OF WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN ANY AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-044>046-030815-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN ANY AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH.

NYZ037-030815-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MOHAWK AT UTICA IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CALL IN ANY AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH.

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