Frost Advisory 7, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
550 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LINE OF CONVECTION
TRAINING THRU EASTERN PA INTO CENTRAL FA.  DOPPLER ESTIMATES OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES PER HR POSSIBLE...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OVER
THESE AREAS TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE AGONIZINGLY SLOW
THRU THIS EVENING...THUS WATCH WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.  FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY THRU THE EVENING.  GRIDS AND TEXT
PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.  PB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOW ROUGHLY A 200 MILE WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LINED UP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION...BUT
WE THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE BETTER HEATING/INSTABILITY
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE
GUIDANCE OF CHOICE...SHOWING THE HEAVIEST STRIPE OF RAINFALL
(1.5-2.5) JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
SINCE THIS RAIN SHOULD FALL IN ABOUT A 12-HOUR PERIOD...WERE NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD RUNOFF PROBLEMS...AND A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK DEPARTURE TO THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
WELL STILL CARRY RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...BUT OTHERWISE TAPER THINGS BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THAT ENOUGH DRIER AIR/SINKING MOTION COULD
ENTER THE PICTURE FOR BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. UPSTATE NY WILL PROBABLY STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION IS
EXPECTED...AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NY AND PA. SOME
SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARDS THE 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ENJOY IT...AS IT APPEARS
THINGS GO DOWNHILL AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
-MJ/JA
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
YET ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROF AND SFC FNT POISED TO DROP INTO THE
FCST AREA SAT NGT. SHWRS WILL LINGER THRU SUN NGT AS THE UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF AND SWINGS INTO NEW ENG. RDGG BLDS SFC AND ALOFT ON MON
BRINGING DRIER AND WRMR AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM THRU IN
THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. GFS GENERATES SOME PCPN ON TUE WITH A WRM
FNTL FEATURE BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPPER
LOW AND SFC FNT SWING THRU EARLY WED. DRY BUT COOL AIR IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.  -MORFORD
&&

.AVIATION /281800Z - 291800Z/...
COLD FNT MVG IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH LGT TO MOD PCPN AND LWRD
CONDS THIS EVE. MOST CIGS AND VSBY WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THIS EVE...AND STAY THERE MUCH OF THE NGT AS CAA BEGINS AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE KEEPS CIGS LOW. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISLTD
TRW...BUT BELIEVE OCCURANCE WILL BE WELL BLO CATEGORY NEEDED FOR
INCLUSION IN TAFS. CIGS WILL SLWLY RISE INTO VFR CAT AFTR 12Z FRI AS
DRIER AIR MVES IN...BUT CONDS SHD REMAIN OVC. WINDS WILL BE SLY AHD
OF THE FNT...BUT SWITCH TO NW QUICKLY BHD THE FNT.  -MORFORD
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ044-045-055-056 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-047 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
427 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-048-
072-290830-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
427 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...BECOMING A
STEADIER RAIN TONIGHT. A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVER A
12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE FLOOD PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING IN COMMON TROUBLE AREAS SUCH AS STORM DRAIN...
UNDERPASS...BASEMENT FLOODING OR OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY
OR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...RAIN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY TOTALS OVER
ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PAZ043-044-047-290830-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-
427 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING A STEADIER RAIN TONIGHT. A POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHIELD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 2 INCHES OVER A 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE
FLOOD PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN COMMON TROUBLE AREAS SUCH AS STORM
DRAIN... UNDERPASS...BASEMENT FLOODING OR OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

ALSO...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WYOMING VALLEY
INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WILL HAVE SUNSHINE...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BECOME UNSTABLE. THIS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR COULD
CAUSE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OUR EXPECTATION OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO REPORT ANY TOTALS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JAB