Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 2006
Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Binghamton, NY
NWS Binghamton, NY issued this flash flood warning at Jul 21, 2006, 5:34 AM EDT for Wayne County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 116 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 21, 2006, 5:34 AM EDT (09:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 21, 2006, 7:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- NWS Binghamton, NY
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Wayne County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 404 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1241 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS51 KBGM 210938 FFWBGM PAC127-211130- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 534 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA * UNTIL 730 AM EDT * AT 531 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HAWLEY AND HEADSDALE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MIDDLE CREEK BASIN. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED AROUND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...INCLUDING MIDDLE CREEK AND POSSIBLY SOME AREAS NEAR THE LACKAWAXEN RIVER. ROADS AND BRIDGES COULD BE THREATENED. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV. LAT...LON 4163 7508 4139 7524 4144 7531 4162 7526 $$ JAB
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 21, 4:04 AM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 4:04 AM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 404 AM FRI JUL 21 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)... SFC COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE EASTERN GTLKS AT 06Z. LEADING PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND DEEPER LIFT AHEAD OF S/WV TROF WERE TRIGGERING CLUSTERS OF HVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN ZONES TODAY...WITH THIS FIRST ROUND EXITING EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC FRONT THEN MEANDERS INTO THE AREA WITH GFS/WRF AGREEING ON A POSITION ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS CNY BY 18Z. STILL HAVE UPR HGHTS FALLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF BROAD TROF WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE PA AND SRN TIER NY. DO EXPECT SOME ADDL TSRA IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY SO HAVE KEPT SCT-NMRS TSRA IN THE FCST...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES. FRONT SUPPRESSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND LLVL CAA. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK UL WAVES PASSING THRU THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT 00Z-12Z...BUT LOWER LVL STABILIZATION AND LACK OF SFC FOCUS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHECK ON PRECIP TONITE. THEN...MODELS ARE OFFERING UP AN INTERESTING...AND IF TRUE...RATHER SCARY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IN OUR FLOOD RAVAGED AREA. GFS/ENSEMBLES/WRF/ECMWF INDICATE UPR TROF SHARPENING OVER THE GTLKS TO THE TN VALLEY WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG STALLED FRONT...AND MOVING NEWD TO EITHER COASTAL NH...OR SE NY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GFS FASTER AND SIG WETTER THAN WRF...AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONV FEEDBACK ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC SIGNALS FROM BOTH MODELS ARE FVRBL FOR HVY RAIN TO SOME DEGREE. SREFS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF MEMBERS SHOWING MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NEPA. WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS ON TIMING SO I THINK THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO MOVE UP TO FAIRLY HIGH POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CHC REMAINING FOR THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN PLACE FOR A RAIN EVENT SAT NITE..BUT GIVEN SUCH A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WE ARE NOT CONVINCED OF SIGNIFICANT AND WDSPRD HVY RAIN IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WE PLAN ON TAKING THE CONSERVATIVE ROAD THIS MORNING AS FAR AS ANY STATEMENTS GO. WILL MENTION CHC HEAVY RAIN IN FCST...AND ADDRESS THE PSBLTY IN THE HAZ WX OUTLOOK...THEN LET DAY SHIFT PUT IT ALL TOGETHER WITH THE NEXT COUPLE MDL RUN TRENDS. FOR SUNDAY...EVEN THE SLOWER WRF WOULD SHOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY...SO WILL JUST LEAVE FCST WITH A CHC SHRA IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. BLENDED THE HARD TO BEAT FWC/MAV COMBINATION GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. -JAB && .AVIATION (21/06Z TO 22/06Z)... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. THE FIRST FEW HOURS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH AT TIMES LOWERING VSBY AND MAYBE CIG TO MVFR. WITH THE GROUND MOISTURE MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE COULD DROP TO IFR. DURING THE DAY VFR WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT START TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTN THEN DROPPING BACK TO LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS EVENING. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)... SLOW MVG FNTLY SYSTEM WILL BE WELL CLR OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND A PROLONGED PD OF DRIER WX WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS A SFC HI BLDS IN. FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON WED AS A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROF AND SHRT WV BRINGS SOME LFT AND THE THREAT OF SHWRS. STRUNGOUT SYSTEM IS DFCLT TO DEFINE AND TIME...ESP AT LONG RANGE SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW AND SPEAD OUT INTO THU. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS. -MORFORD && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 4:45 AM EDT, 49 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 445 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-220845- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN- SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND- CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD- SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE- SOUTHERN WAYNE- 445 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TODAY...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP. SOME FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER HAS ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER THERE ARE REASONABLE INDICATIONS THAT A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS...COULD FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERN FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...HOWEVER ANY RAINFALL OR FLOODING REPORTS SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. JAB
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 21, 1:48 AM EDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 148 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 PAZ038-039-210645- BRADFORD PA-SUSQUEHANNA PA- 148 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA... * AT 142 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HERRICKVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... STEVENSVILLE AND BRUSHVILLE AT 155 AM EDT... RUSHVILLE AND SILVARA AT 200 AM EDT... LAWTON AND RUSH AT 205 AM EDT... AUBURN CENTER AND BIRCHARDVILLE AT 210 AM EDT... ELK LAKE AT 215 AM EDT... DIMOCK AND SPRINGVILLE AT 220 AM EDT... ALFORD AT 230 AM EDT... HOP BOTTOM AT 235 AM EDT... THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Local storm report, Jul 21, 4:43 AM EDT, 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
443 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM FLASH FLOOD VIENNA 43.23N 75.72W
07/21/2006 ONEIDA NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
COUNTY ROUTE 49 CLOSED DUE TO ABOUT 2 FEET OF WATER GOING
OVER IT.
&&
TACNearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2006Every flash flood warning in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.