Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Binghamton, NY

000 
WGUS71 KBGM 181624
FFSBGM

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1123 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

PAC079-181650-
LUZERNE PA-
1120 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LUZERNE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW 
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY STREAMS AND CREEKS THAT ARE NEAR OR 
OVER BANKFULL WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


LAT...LON 4138 7597 4095 7579 4092 7606 4097 7621
      4126 7634 4140 7629

$$

MC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
545 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
THIS UPDATE IS TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR THE EXPIRATION OF ANY ADVISORIES TO THIS
END.  ALSO...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED THE TEMPERATURES
UPWARD DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA...AND INTO
PARTS OF NYS SOUTHERN TIER.  SOME AREAS FROM WILKES-BARRE SOUTHWARD
ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S AND CONTINUING TO RISE...WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S  OBVIOUSLY...THE NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT GRIDS WERE BUMPED UPWARD SIGNIFICANTLY...ALONG WITH SOME
TWEAKING OF THE WINDS.  ALL ELSE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 1+
RAINS...MOSTLY THIS MORNING.  FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.  SMALL STREAM
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO MINOR MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING.  RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY...AS
COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND A SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO TURN FAIRLY WINDY TODAY.  IN FACT...STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA.  THERE SHOULD QUITE A GRADIENT IN WIND
SPEEDS THIS MORNING...AS A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION PROTECTS THE
VALLEYS...WHILE THE HILLTOPS BLOW MUCH HARDER.  WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...ONCE THE COLDER AIR COMES IN AND
WIPES OUT THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION.

THINGS SHOULD CALM DOWN CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE REGION.  -MJ

&&

.AVIATION (18/06Z - 19/06Z)...
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR UP STILL BEING REPORTED AT ITH AND UCA. THIS
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURE RISES FURTHER WITH WAA AND
STRONG SE WINDS. RAIN EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THIS MORNING.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR AT UCA TO MVFR MOST OTHER TAF SITES. BGM
AND ITH HAVE IFR CIGS WITH THEIR HIGHER ELEVATED SITES. CIGS AND
VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING ALL SITES.

EAST TO SE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER AND SHIFT TO THE SW BY 16Z. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
FURTHER TO W THIS AFTN. WITH THE FROPA CIGS WILL START TO RISE AS
THE  RAIN TAPERS OFF AND POSSIBLY CHANGES TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
WITH STRONG...45 KTS...LOW LEVEL JET AND ALSO TURNING WITH HEIGHT
LLWS LIKELY. INCLUDED LLWS IN ALL TAFS.  -TAC

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEAK SFC TROF REMAINING FAR ENOUGH
WEST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK SFC TROF VCNTY OF CWA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHC POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING THEN JUST RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS FAR SE ZONES KEPT POPS BELOW THRESHOLD.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MID WEST ON SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ON BACK SIDE SATURDAY NIGHT.

REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN US AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW KEEPING TEMPS MILD.  -RRM

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHORT DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL (NEAR 1 IN ABOUT 6 HOURS) SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREA FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE RUNOFF
PROBLEMS ON THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  A FEW SELECT POINTS ON THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA AND UPPER
DELAWARE MAIN STEM RIVERS (MOSTLY QUICK RESPONDERS / HEADWATER
LOCALES) ARE FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.  -MJ

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM TODAY FOR ONEIDA AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.
.PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
512 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-191013-
BRADFORD-BROOME-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-CORTLAND-DELAWARE-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN WAYNE-ONONDAGA-OTSEGO-PIKE-
SCHUYLER-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
STEUBEN-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-TIOGA-TOMPKINS-WYOMING-YATES-
512 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ALBFFABGM STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ALBNPWBGM
STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...OR HIGH WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BINGHAMTON.

MJ