Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM ABOUT I-81 EASTWARD. HEAVY RAIN...OF
COURSE...REMAINS A CONCERN AREA-WIDE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...WELL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 8
PM. BY THIS EVENING...THE NEXT SHIFT CAN CONSIDER IF THE FLOOD
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SPECIFIC AREAS TO EXTEND THE WATCH OR NOT.

SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD BETWEEN
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY
TROUGH THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH OUR NEXT
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT PROGGED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
ONCE AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE.  -MJ

&&

.AVIATION (26/06Z TO 27/06Z)...
RAIN CONTS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. XPCT A
GRADUAL TAPER OFF OF RAIN INTENSITY...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCRS IN
VSBYS AND CIGS...THRU 00Z. 00-06Z WILL FEATURE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY
WITH SCT LGT RAIN AND LGT FOG. ANOTHER SLUG OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL
ENTER THE AREA AFT 06Z AND CIGS AND VSBYS COULD LWR TO IFR LVLS AT
TIMES...ESP AT ITH...BGM...AND AVP. AFT 12Z TUE...CONDS SHD IMPROV
ONCE AGAIN AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. GNRLY XPCT VFR CONDS 12 TO 18Z.
-MORFORD

&&

.LONG RANGE (WED NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
WET CONDS CONT AS THE FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROF. TROF
AXIS GNRLY CNTRD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND VARIOUS SHRT WVS WILL
ROTATE THRU KEEPING THE AREA UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF A SHWR AT
ALMOST ANY TIME. MADE ONLY SLGT ADJUSMENTS TO HPC GUID IN TEMPS AND
POPS.  -MORFORD

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062 UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY.
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072 UNTIL 8
PM EDT MONDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-271030-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
623 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PLEASE SEE
ALBFFABGM WGUS61 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY IN SUPPORT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR GREATER.

PB