Alert archive / Wisconsin / Winter Storm Warnings in 2006

Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS La Crosse, WI

February 15, 200613 counties in Wisconsin; 8 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Minnesota

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this winter storm warning at Feb 15, 2006, 10:24 AM CST for 13 counties in Wisconsin; 8 counties in Iowa; 7 counties in Minnesota. It took effect at Feb 16, 2006, 12:00 AM CST. It was in force for 21 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2006, 10:24 AM CST (16:24 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 16, 2006, 12:00 AM CST
Expired
Feb 16, 2006, 9:20 PM CST
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS La Crosse, WI
All 28 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Clark County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2006-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2006-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -112 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1514 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
105 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KARX 151624
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1024 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

...WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW ON THURSDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS MORNING. THIS POTENT WINTER STORM
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PAN-HANDLES
TONIGHT...THEN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LOW...AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE 1 TO 2
INCHES. THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
BE FROM MID MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR CRESCO IOWA TO LA CROSSE AND NECEDAH WISCONSIN. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND OVER THE RIDGE-TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-160030-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0001.060216T0600Z-060217T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.WS.W.0001.060216T0600Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
1024 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. 

SNOW WILL START TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT FROM
NEAR CRESCO IOWA TO LA CROSSE...TOMAH AND ADAMS-FRIENDSHIP
WISCONSIN.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RRS
9 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KARX 152134
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006

...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO HEAD TOWARD THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POTENT WINTER STORM
WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PAN-HANDLES
TONIGHT. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TO NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW WAS ALREADY
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE STORM. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
EASTWARD FROM THESE AREAS...AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA...
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
MAIN PART OF THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW REMAINS THE
MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW TOTALS OF 6 INCHES
OR MORE ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR CRESCO IOWA TO
LA CROSSE AND ADAMS-FRIENDSHIP WISCONSIN. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
AND OVER THE RIDGE-TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-160545-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.060216T0600Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
334 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT. 

SNOW WILL START TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...ARE
THEN EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6
INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
APPROACHING A FOOT FROM NEAR CRESCO IOWA TO LA CROSSE...TOMAH AND
ADAMS-FRIENDSHIP WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RRS
000 
WWUS43 KARX 160936
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...POTENT WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TODAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WERE ALREADY FALLING WELL NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER...AFFECTING PARTS OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND 
INTO WISCONSIN. THE FULL IMPACT OF THE STORM WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREAS TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A CRESCO IOWA TO TOMAH WISCONSIN LINE. THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
OR MORE INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR A FOOT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LEADING TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THIS WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ALONG AREA RIDGE-TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-161745-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
336 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT. 

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH...PERHAPS TWO...ALONG AN AUSTIN TO
BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE. 

THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID MORNING...AFFECTING
MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OR 1 TO 2
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD APPROACH A FOOT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A CRESCO IOWA TO LA
CROSSE...TO TOMAH TO FRIENDSHIP WISCONSIN LINE.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE
OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RIECK
000 
WWUS43 KARX 161434
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
834 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...POTENT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...AFFECTING PARTS OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND INTO
WISCONSIN. THE FULL IMPACT OF THE STORM WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE
REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
OR MORE INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR A FOOT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LEADING TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THIS WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ALONG AREA RIDGE- TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-162245-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
834 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT. 

BANDS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...AFFECTING MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OR 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD APPROACH A FOOT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A CRESCO IOWA TO LA
CROSSE...TO TOMAH TO FRIENDSHIP WISCONSIN LINE.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE
OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RABERDING
000 
WWUS43 KARX 161758
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1158 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS MOVING INTO ILLINOIS MIDDAY TODAY.
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR A FOOT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THIS WILL
ADD TO THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ALONG AREA RIDGE-
TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-170200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
1158 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...
WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
A FOOT.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RABERDING
000 
WWUS43 KARX 161954
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
154 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS MOVING INTO ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS LIKELY
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. IN
ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. THIS WILL
ADD TO THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ALONG AREA RIDGE-
TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-170400-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
154 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING... WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RABERDING
000 
WWUS43 KARX 162152
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
IS LIKELY IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.
THIS WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... AND ALONG
AREA RIDGE- TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-170600-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
352 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF A NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN...TO
CRESCO IOWA LINE. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE SNOW DIMINISHES.

IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE-TOPS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

RABERDING
000 
WWUS43 KARX 170008
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SNOW BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA...

.THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOW
FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN...EAST OF A LINE
FROM PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AND VIROQUA...TO NECEDAH AND STEVENS POINT.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WERE STILL FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE SNOW AREA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA...AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES EXPECTED BEFORE
WE ARE DONE. IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG
WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. THIS
WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... AND ALONG
AREA RIDGE TOPS.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-170600-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
608 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SNOW WILL LET UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AND VIROQUA...TO NECEDAH AND
STEVENS POINT...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. BUT CRISP NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE
TOPS.

$$

MW
000 
WWUS43 KARX 170147
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
747 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SNOW DIMINISHING...

.THE CENTER OF THE POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED EAST
TO NEAR DETROIT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...SNOW WAS DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOWFALL IS NOW ALL EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAINING
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF
THE NEW SNOW...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD WILL SEND WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. 


IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-170600-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...CHARLES CITY...
OELWEIN...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...MAUSTON...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
747 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. IN
ADDITION...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING
OF THE NEW SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD WILL SEND WIND CHILL READINGS
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. 

PERSONS VENTURING OUT TONIGHT NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THE ADVERSE
WEATHER. ROADS WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY IN PLACES.
BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP AGAINST THE COLD. 

$$

MW
000 
WWUS43 KARX 170320
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
920 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...SNOW ENDING BUT BITTER COLD AIR ON THE WAY...

.THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE SNOW
WILL BE ENDING AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF
THIS WINTER SEASON. LOWS BY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW ZERO. WHEN THIS IS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS...WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
WARM MUCH ON FRIDAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR
20 BELOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. 

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ032-171130-
/O.CAN.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.WC.Y.0001.060217T0900Z-060218T0000Z/
MITCHELL-HOWARD-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-
MOWER-FILLMORE-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLES CITY...ROCHESTER...WINONA...
AUSTIN
920 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. BUT COLD AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BY MORNING...AND WILL NOT
WARM MUCH AT ALL ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD WILL
KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. 

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND BRISK WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU BUNDLE UP AGAINST THE
BITTER COLD. 

$$

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ017-029-033-034-041>044-053>055-061-
170430-
/O.CAN.KARX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060217T0600Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HOUSTON-TAYLOR-CLARK-
TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...OELWEIN...MEDFORD...
NEILLSVILLE...BLACK RIVER FALLS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA/TOMAH...
MAUSTON...VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...
PLATTEVILLE
920 PM CST THU FEB 16 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL BE ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. 

$$

MW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 15, 10:24 AM CST, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 10:24 AM CST, 0 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1024 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

.UPDATE...

15/12Z NAM/GFS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SINCE
14/00Z. INITIAL SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ITS ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS/LIFT SPREAD SOME -SN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SHOW STILL
SET FOR THU. STRONG...COUPLED...300MB AGEOSTROPHIC DIVERGENCE...500-
300MB PV ADVECTION...285-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT...DEEP LAYERED Q-G
CONVERGENCE...LAYERS OF -EPV AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 3 TO 5
G/KG GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALL CONTINUE TO POINT TO A MAJOR SNOW
EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON THU. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AROUND MID-DAY THU. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT THRU THU EVENING...
THUS UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR ITS ENTIRE VALID PERIOD.

&&
RRS

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

FINE TUNING DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH WINTER STORM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAD COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI TO LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
EVIDENT ACROSS UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM
LOWER 30S IN SOUTHWEST WI...TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN NORTHWEST
MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST. 00Z 15FEB06 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
PROFILER NETWORK SHOWED 120KT JET MAXIMUM ACROSS GREAT LAKES...AS
WELL AS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA.

00Z 15FEB06 MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH RESPECT TO SHORT WAVE ALONG WEST COAST AND POSITION/STRENGTH
OF CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING VICINITY OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ECMWF...
UKMET...GFS AND NAM WERE ALL INDICATING EXCELLENT CLUSTERING WITH
REGARD TO TRACK OF SURFACE LOW ADVANCING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z 16FEB06-00Z 17FEB06. QPF WAS ALSO SIMILAR...
ALTHOUGH GFS HAD OVERALL HEAVIER AMOUNTS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT
FORECAST AREA AND FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO CURRENT DATA BASE.

TONIGHT...PREFERRED DETAILS OF NAM...WHICH INDICATED AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL BECOMING ESTABLISHED 00Z-03Z 16FEB06
THROUGH HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE NARROW BAND
OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL BEFORE IT LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. DAY AND EVENING SHIFT WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS
SIGNAL...AS IT COULD PRODUCE STRIPE OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAN
CURRENT DATA BASE SUGGESTS.

THURSDAY...LARGER AND EVEN STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL THEN SETS
UP AROUND 12Z 16FEB06 OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BEFORE EXITING AROUND
00Z 17FEB06. THIS SHOULD BE TIME FRAME WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST...AS DEPICTED BY MODEL QPF. IN FACT...
NORTH-SOUTH CROSS SECTION INDICATED COUPLED 300MB JET STRUCTURE...
WHICH SHOULD AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.

IN ADDITION...NEGATIVE EPV EXISTS ALONG WITH STRONG FN CONVERGENCE
SIGNAL SLOPING NORTHWARD INTO THE COLD AIR. POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL RATES OF POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR. MINUS 15C ISOTHERM
JUXTAPOSED WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. NAM AND GFS COBB OUTPUT VALUES INDICATED
SNOW TO WATER RATIO AVERAGING 13:1 TO 17:1. COBB VALUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY IN A RANGE FROM 6-14 INCHES.
THIS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CURRENT
DATA BASE SHOULD BE REASONABLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF STEADILY DURING THE EVENING
AS FORCING EXITS. HOWEVER...TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED
DEEP SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING STORM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO BLOW AND DRIFT THE FRESH SNOW...
THUS HAMPERING ALREADY DIFFICULT TRAVELING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
THEREFORE...ADDED BLOWING SNOW IN CURRENT DATA BASE.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING SITES...CONSENSUS WAS TO
MAINTAIN WINTER STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED ON
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO STRONG FORCING SIGNALS...
ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS APPEARS PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE FEATURES. BESIDES A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK...LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE. AS A RESULT...ONE OF THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WINTER SO
FAR APPEARS PROBABLE. CURRENT DATA BASE TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED
DOWNWARD BY ARX FORECASTER ON TUESDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
VALUES MAY STILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH...WHAT WITH THE FACT THERE SHOULD
BE FRESH...DEEP SNOW COVER. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO REEVALUATE TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY MINIMUMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-
     WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-
     MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-
     IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

THOMPSON
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 4:00 AM CST, 6 hours 24 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
400 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-161100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
400 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...MOSTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FROM A ROCHESTER TO LA
CROSSE LINE AND SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW...BRINGING A SWATH OF 6 OR MORE INCHES TO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FOOT ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FURTHER THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND
ALONG THE RIDGE-TOPS.

WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION STARTING
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

DURING THE WEEKEND...A VERY COLD AIR MASS SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE
AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED ON THURSDAY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 100 PM.

RIECK

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2006Winter Storm Warnings in Iowa, 2006Winter Storm Warnings in Minnesota, 2006Every winter storm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.