Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 241956
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

WIC119-242030-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-060724T2030Z/
TAYLOR WI-
254 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR TAYLOR COUNTY...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR STETSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.


* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GAD AROUND 310 PM...
  HIGHWAY M AND JOE MARTIN ROAD AROUND 320 PM...
  GOODRICH AROUND 330 PM...

THESE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES...WITH SOME OF 
THE STRONGER PORTIONS OF THE STORMS DRIFTING INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST 
CLARK COUNTY. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS 
TAYLOR COUNTY...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST 
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE WARNING WILL 
BE CANCELLED EARLY.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4537 9092 4503 9091 4504 9020 4512 9020
      4512 9005 4526 9005

$$

BINAU

000 
WWUS53 KARX 242004
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

WIC119-242013-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-060724T2030Z/
TAYLOR WI-
303 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TAYLOR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA...INTO NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. OTHER 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM. A 
FEW OF THESE COULD AGAIN BECOME SEVERE.

LAT...LON 4537 9092 4503 9091 4504 9020 4512 9020
      4512 9005 4526 9005

$$

BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS THE AREA...PART OF
WHICH IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN NOW AND INTO THE EVENING IS A SLOWLY SAGGING WEST TO EAST
RUNNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO
CENTRAL WI. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SINK A BIT MORE
SOUTH...AND REST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIKELY MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUES. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A RESULT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES CONFINED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH OF
IT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
SUNDOWN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...SEE
OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED...THE 500 MB FLOW HAS BEEN SHIFTING FROM A
NORTHWEST TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS
ORIENTATION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
ANY STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...VARIOUS
SMALLER PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW OF THESE SHORTWAVES MAY BE
ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...BROUGHT ON BY THE SHORTWAVE/S
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN
ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LOOKS TO LAY UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXACT POSITIONING ON THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT
CLEAR...AS IT WILL WAVER DEPENDING ON WHERE/WHEN CONVECTION BREAKS
OUT. HOWEVER...IT...ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVES...WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPES REACHING 2000 J/KG OR SO. WIND
SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND WHAT IS PROGGED IS IN THE 0-3
KM LAYER...GENERALLY UP TO 20 KTS. THERE IS SOME CIN....MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT AGAIN...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE...TRYING TO DISCERN HOW FAR NORTH A CAP
WILL BE IS PROBLEMATIC. SO...GETTING A HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...AND TIMING AND TRACK OF THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST FACTORS FOR FORECASTING THE PCPN CHANCES.

CURRENTLY...BEST INDICATIONS RIGHT NOW ARE TO HOLD THAT FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI FOR TUES/WED. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF WANT
TO SPIN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH IA TUES NIGHT...AND DROP A COUPLE
OTHER WEAK WAVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WED. MEANWHILE...850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...IN NORTHERN
WI ON TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING...COULD PRODUCING SOME PCPN IN THAT
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL COME INTO
PLAY TUES NIGHT...POINTING INTO WESTERN IA. COME THU...A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LOOKS TO DRAG A FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE...AND THIS...ALONG WITH A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE INTO
THE PLAINS...SHOULD HELP KICK THAT LINGERING WEST-EAST BOUNDARY
EAST.

BOTTOM LINE? THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES INTO THU. THE
BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...OVER
NORTHERN WI...AND THEN OVER IOWA. CHANCES WOULD THEN CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WED. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO
AT TIMES...SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
GOOD SHEAR SHOULD REDUCE THE PROSPECTS OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER SCENARIO.

AGAIN...ITS A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WITH A LOT OF RELATIVELY
WEAKER FEATURES HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON WHERE/WHEN THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES WILL LIE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE EXTENDED IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD A 500 MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES THIS WEEKEND. VARIOUS...RELATIVELY
WEAKER PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW...WHILE THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...IN THE MEAN
FLOW. TIMING FOR THESE SMALLER FEATURES IS DIFFICULT...AND BRINGS
UNCERTAINTY TO ANY PCPN CHANCES. IN ADDITION...ANY WEST TO EAST SFC
BOUNDARY COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...THANKS TO THAT ZONAL
FLOW GIVING THE BOUNDARY LITTLE REASON TO MOVE. THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT IN THE GFS AND DGEX ON DROPPING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SAT NIGHT...AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THROUGH NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN
WI SUN NIGHT. NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS WOULD POSE A BIG THREAT FOR
PCPN TO THE LOCAL AREA CURRENTLY. HOWEVER...AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT
WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT WAVE COULD THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. AGAIN
THOUGH...THE DETAILS ARE VERY HAZY AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL NOT GO
OVERBOARD WITH ANY POPS. WILL TREND MORE TOWARD DRY FOR
NOW...BRINGING POPS INTO THE FORECAST WHERE THE SIGNALS ARE MORE
STRONGER/MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

RIECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-251100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1202 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO GROW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM RHINELANDER WISCONSIN TO MINNEAPOLIS
MINNESOTA AT 12 PM. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TO
AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON /5-6 PM/. THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE TRIGGER AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STORMS WILL TRY TO PRESS SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT AND STORMS WILL REACH BEFORE
STALLING. STORM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS MAINLY NORTH OF
A MASON CITY IOWA TO BOSCOBEL WISCONSIN LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OR NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING A TRIGGER
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT MAY BE...HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCES
AND WINDS ALOFT...THERE MAY BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE APPROXIMATE WINDOWS OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION ARE...

NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN WISCONSIN...2 PM TO 7 PM...
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR...4 PM TO 9 PM...
EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...6 PM TO 10 PM.

ADDITIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE DETAILS OF THIS ARE LESS CERTAIN.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RRS/MW/BAUMGARDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
156 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E RIB LAKE            45.32N 90.18W
07/24/2006                   TAYLOR             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THREE TREES DOWN OVER THE HIGHWAY

&&

LUSSKY