Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 022053
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIC001-022130-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-061002T2130Z/
ADAMS WI-
352 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR ADAMS COUNTY...

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COUNTY ROADS G AND O...OR 17 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF FRIENDSHIP...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL 
MOVE OUT OF ADAMS COUNTY BY 4 PM. ANOTHER STRONG TO SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARKDALE...MOVING EAST AT 30 
MPH...TOWARD RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4424 8988 4409 9000 4389 8993 4380 8961
      4424 8960

$$

BINAU

000 
WWUS53 KARX 022106
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
403 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIC001-022130-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-061002T2130Z/
ADAMS WI-
403 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR ADAMS COUNTY...

AT 401 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED NEAR COUNTY ROADS G AND M...OR 7 MILES 
EAST OF FRIENDSHIP...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 350 PM CDT...QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 1 MILE SOUTH OF THE 
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY D AND W.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COUNTY ROADS G AND O AND COUNTY ROADS C AND G AROUND 410 PM...

LAT...LON 4424 8988 4409 9000 4389 8993 4380 8961
      4424 8960

$$

DAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE SEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE PAST
HOUR TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WHERE THE CAP HAS
WEAKENED AND SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXIST. WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...STORMS HAVE BEEN ON
THE STRONG SIDE.

12Z 02OCT06 MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY TAKING SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
LIMITING FACTOR IS SHEAR PARAMETERS WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. AS WAVE PUSHES EAST LATER TONIGHT WEAK SUBSIDENCE LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE TAILORED GREATEST POPS THIS
EVENING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW
TO RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE CONVECTION IN
VICINITY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG
THE FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTING TO MU CAPES OF
2000J/KG TO 3000J/KG. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS BAND OF
WESTERLIES SINKS SOUTHWARD...PRODUCING SHEAR THAT WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURES. ROTATING STORMS A POSSIBILITY IN
VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO DATABASE.

BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO LINGER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER GOOD
CHANCE TO SEE SOME FROST IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH VALLEY FOG
FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE OFFING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...PATTERN OF TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTER
MOUNTAIN REGION...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING...BUT
DIFFERS IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION UNDER
UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH GFS AND ECMWF INLINE. BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION. AS TROUGH PROGRESSES
EASTWARD WITH TIME HAVE TRENDED INCREASING POPS WITH TIME OVER THE
AREA. MAIN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED BEFORE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME PRECLUDES HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

RABERDING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
500 AM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-031100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
500 AM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO 9
PM. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...AND WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER
ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE/MW