Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS La Crosse, WI

July 30, 2006Taylor County, Wisconsin

NWS La Crosse, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 30, 2006, 3:59 AM CDT for Taylor County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 30, 2006, 3:59 AM CDT (08:59 UTC)
Expired: Jul 30, 2006, 5:00 AM CDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS La Crosse, WI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Taylor County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1394 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1325 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 3.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 30, 3:15 AM CDT, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 3:15 AM CDT, 44 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS ON EXCESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET INTO
BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR.

00Z 30JUL06 MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT COLD AND THEIR CORRESPONDING QPF
PATTERNS. GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE WAVE THAT RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH RESULTS IN MORE QPF ACROSS
THE AREA...WHILE NAM HOLD BACK THE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NAM SHOWING SOME DECENT FORCING SIGNALS
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITHOUT GENERATING
PRECIPITATION. WILL USE MORE OF A BLEND IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO
BETWEEN 24 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO
EXPAND HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT TAYLOR
COUNTY. CONVECTION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY LATE MORNING THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S THAT WILL CORRESPOND TO AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 115 DEGREES. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OF
AIR...ONLY EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY. SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS Is. LOOKS LIKE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SHOWING DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING FRONT TO BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT DATABASE REFLECTS THIS TREND WELL.
REMAINDER OF PERIOD THEN WILL BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW RESULTING
IN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A RATHER HOT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR ESTABLISH RECORD
HIGH MAXIMUM AND WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AT 80
DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE VERY UNUSUAL BECAUSE LA CROSSE HAS ONLY HAD A
LOW TEMPERATURE IN 80S FIVE TIMES SINCE 1872. THE LAST TIME THIS
OCCURRED WAS JULY 4 1999. THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED
AT LA CROSSE WAS 81 DEGREES ON JULY 21 1901 AND JULY 13 1995. THE
LATTER DATE WAS THE SAME DATE THAT WE REACHED 108 DEGREES WHICH TIED
JULY 14 1936 FOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN LA CROSSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-
     WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-
     MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ008-
     IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

JLR/JB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 9:13 PM CDT, 6 hours 46 minutes before

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Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.