Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2006

Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Gaylord, MI

November 30, 200622 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Nov 30, 2006, 3:53 PM EST for 22 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Dec 1, 2006, 6:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 30, 2006, 3:53 PM EST (20:53 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 1, 2006, 6:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 1, 2006, 6:00 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 22 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 0Atlanta, MI1.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH NOON. SNOW DEPTH 1.5 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 33 S Gaylord, MI3 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1130 AM. SNOWDEPTH 3.0 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 3Atlanta, MI1.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH NOON. SNOW DEPTH 3.0 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 3Kewadin, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH 130 PM. SNOW DEPTH 3.0 INCHES.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 3.53 S Suttons Bay, MI3 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1 PM. SNOW DEPTH 3.5 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 3.54 W Suttons Bay, MI2 HR TOTAL SINCE 1030 AM. SNOW DEPTH 3.5 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Gladwin, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM. SNOW DEPTH 3.5 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 415 W Alpena, MI2.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1215 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4.0 INCHES.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 47 W Alpena, MI3.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 130 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4.0 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 48 Sw St. Helen, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH 11 AM. SNOWDEPTH 4.0 INCHES.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Mckinley, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH NOON. SNOW DEPTH 4.5 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 5Moorestown, MI4.0 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1230 PM. SNOW DEPTH 5.0 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 61 W Ossineke, MI4.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1230 PM. SNOW DEPTH 6.0 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 6.54 Ne Roscommon, MI8 HR TOTAL THROUGH 230 PM. SNOW DEPTH 6.5 INCHES.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 77 Se Traverse City, MI3.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1 PM. SNOW DEPTH 7 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 7.2Manistee, MI7 HR TOTAL THROUGH 12 PM. SNOW DEPTH 7 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 7.84 W Suttons Bay, MI3.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 7.8 INCHES.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 9.3Manistee, MI7.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1230 PM. SNOW DEPTH 9.3 INCHES.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 10.57 Se Traverse City, MI4.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 10.5 INCHES. 3.5 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST HOUR.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 11Interlochen, MI6 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 11.0 IN.
Dec 1, 9:57 AM ESTSNOW 11.7Manistee, MI8 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1 PM. SNOW DEPTH 11.7 IN. 5.1 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 1.5 HRS, SINCE 1130 AM.
Dec 1, 11:07 AM ESTSNOW 5.59 S Grayling, MI4 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM. SNOW DEPTH 6 IN.
Dec 1, 2:24 PM ESTSNOW 10.57 Se Traverse City, MI4.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 10.5 INCHES. 3.5 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST HOUR.
Dec 1, 2:25 PM ESTSNOW 3Kewadin, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH 130 PM. SNOW DEPTH 3.0 INCHES.
Dec 1, 2:25 PM ESTSNOW 47 W Alpena, MI3.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 130 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4.0 IN.
Dec 1, 2:25 PM ESTSNOW 7.84 W Suttons Bay, MI3.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 7.8 INCHES.
Dec 1, 2:25 PM ESTSNOW 11Interlochen, MI6 HR TOTAL THROUGH 2 PM. SNOW DEPTH 11.0 IN.
Dec 1, 2:26 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Gladwin, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH 10 AM. SNOW DEPTH 3.5 IN.
Dec 1, 2:27 PM ESTSNOW 33 S Gaylord, MI3 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1130 AM. SNOWDEPTH 3.0 IN.
Dec 1, 2:27 PM ESTSNOW 48 Sw St. Helen, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH 11 AM. SNOWDEPTH 4.0 INCHES.
Dec 1, 2:27 PM ESTSNOW 7.2Manistee, MI7 HR TOTAL THROUGH 12 PM. SNOW DEPTH 7 IN.
Dec 1, 2:28 PM ESTSNOW 3Atlanta, MI1.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH NOON. SNOW DEPTH 3.0 IN.
Dec 1, 2:28 PM ESTSNOW 415 W Alpena, MI2.5 HR TOTAL THROUGH 1215 PM. SNOW DEPTH 4.0 INCHES.
Dec 1, 2:28 PM ESTSNOW 4.5Mckinley, MI4 HR TOTAL THROUGH NOON. SNOW DEPTH 4.5 IN.
Dec 1, 2:41 PM ESTSNOW 101 S Traverse City, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 10 IN.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 3Rogers City, MI4 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 510 Nne Standish, MI5 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 5West Branch, MI5 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 65 W Alpena, MI5 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 6Atlanta, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 6Gladwin, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 6Hubbard Lake, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 710 Ne Hale, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 7Kewadin, MI5 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 8Bellaire, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 1010 Nw Mio, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 115 S Suttons Bay, MI5 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.
Dec 1, 2:56 PM ESTSNOW 16.9Manistee, MI9 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM. SNOWDEPTH 16 IN.
Dec 1, 3:43 PM ESTSNOW 14.5Onekama, MI8 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM.
Dec 1, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 68 Sw St. Helen, MI9 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM.
Dec 1, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.3Gaylord, MI7 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM.
Dec 1, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 5.8Alba, MI9 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.
Dec 1, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 6Lupton, MI9 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.
Dec 1, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.511 N Lake City, MI8 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.
Dec 1, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 8.5Lake Ann, MI9 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.
Dec 1, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 111 W Interlochen, MI8 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.
Dec 1, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 12Bellaire, MI8 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.
Dec 1, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 56 Ne Frankfort, MI10 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM.
Dec 1, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 57 E Mancelona, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM.
Dec 1, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 5Sterling, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2006-11-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2006-11-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -116 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
540 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 302053
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...DEVELOPING WINTER STORM TO IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER
PENINSULA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM...INCLUDING DOWNSTATE
AREAS SUCH AS GRAND RAPIDS...LANSING AND DETROIT.

MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042-011100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0008.061201T1100Z-061201T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0006.061201T1100Z-061201T2300Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
353 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. 

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING HEAVY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE
HURON SHORELINE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON FRIDAY. 

$$

MIZ025>028-031>033-011100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0006.061201T1100Z-061201T2300Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
353 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING HEAVY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.  THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON FRIDAY. 

$$

MIZ016>024-011100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0006.061201T1100Z-061201T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
353 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNING AREA FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
BECOMING HEAVY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
EVENING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
LAKE HURON SHORELINE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON FRIDAY. 


$$
JK
4 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 010945
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND IS GETTING READY TO IMPACT
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH INDIANA WILL TRACK
THROUGH DETROIT AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN MID MORNING AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. TRAVEL ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER
PENINSULA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM...INCLUDING DOWNSTATE
AREAS SUCH AS GRAND RAPIDS...LANSING AND DETROIT.

MIZ025>036-041-042-012200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.061201T1100Z-061201T2300Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
445 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO 10 INCHES TODAY...PARTICULARITY BETWEEN
MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOWEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM
CADILLAC TO GRAYLING...ATLANTA AND THE ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA
AREAS. 

THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF M-32...THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN POOR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 

THE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN MOST AREAS AS SCHOOL WILL BE LET
OUT...AND POSSIBLY WHEN MANY PERSONS ARE LEAVING WORK FOR THE DAY.
A HIGHER VOLUME OF TRAFFIC WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
ACCIDENTS. ALSO...ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS. BE PREPARED FOR DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HEAVY SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING.

$$

MIZ016>024-012200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.061201T1100Z-061201T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
445 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO 10 INCHES TODAY...PARTICULARITY BETWEEN
MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOWEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM
CADILLAC TO GRAYLING...ATLANTA AND THE ROGERS CITY AND ALPENA
AREAS. 

THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING SOUTH OF M-32...THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN POOR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 

THE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN MOST AREAS AS SCHOOL WILL BE LET
OUT...AND POSSIBLY WHEN MANY PERSONS ARE LEAVING WORK FOR THE DAY.
A HIGHER VOLUME OF TRAFFIC WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
ACCIDENTS. ALSO...ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS. BE PREPARED FOR DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HEAVY SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING.

$$

SD
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 011627
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL CUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSCODA TO GLADWIN. TRAVEL
ACROSS ALL OF THE LOWER PENINSULA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS
STORM...INCLUDING DOWNSTATE AREAS SUCH AS GRAND RAPIDS...LANSING
AND DETROIT.

MIZ025>036-041-042-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1127 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO 10 INCHES TODAY. LOWEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AND ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSCODA TO GLADWIN WHERE A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN. THE HIGHEST WILL
FALL FROM CADILLAC TO GRAYLING...ATLANTA AND THE ROGERS CITY AND
ALPENA AREAS.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...RESULTING
IN POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
30 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

THE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN MOST AREAS AS SCHOOL WILL BE LET
OUT...AND POSSIBLY WHEN MANY PERSONS ARE LEAVING WORK FOR THE
DAY. A HIGHER VOLUME OF TRAFFIC WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCIDENTS. ALSO...ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS. BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
HEAVY SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING.

$$

MIZ016>024-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
1127 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN POOR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

THE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN MOST AREAS AS SCHOOL WILL BE LET
OUT...AND POSSIBLY WHEN MANY PERSONS ARE LEAVING WORK FOR THE
DAY. A HIGHER VOLUME OF TRAFFIC WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCIDENTS. ALSO...ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS. BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
HEAVY SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING.

$$

MIZ008-015-012300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SB.Y.0010.061201T1627Z-061201T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1127 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL ROTATE NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING LOCALIZED SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW.

THE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN MOST AREAS AS SCHOOL WILL BE LET
OUT...AND POSSIBLY WHEN MANY PERSONS ARE LEAVING WORK FOR THE
DAY. A HIGHER VOLUME OF TRAFFIC WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCIDENTS. ALSO...ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED
DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SECONDARY ROADS. BE PREPARED FOR
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
HEAVY SNOW.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 012054
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
354 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...STRONG WINTER STORM LEAVING NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

.THE STRONG WINTER STORM WHICH BROUGHT MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO
PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PUSH INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING. AS
IT DOES SO...THE WINDS AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.

MIZ025>036-041-042-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
354 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. EVEN AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES...MANY ROADS WILL REMAIN
SLICK AND SNOW COVERED.  

EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING TONIGHT.  


$$

MIZ016>024-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA
354 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE. EVEN AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES...MANY ROADS WILL REMAIN
SLICK AND SNOW COVERED.

EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING TONIGHT.  

$$

MIZ008-015-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SB.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
354 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING.  

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  

EVEN AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES...MANY ROADS WILL REMAIN SLICK AND
SNOW COVERED.  EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING TONIGHT.

$$
JK
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 012304
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
604 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

MIZ016>036-041-042-020015-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
604 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS EVENING.

$$

MIZ008-015-020015-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SB.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-061201T2300Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
604 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS EVENING.

$$

MR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 30, 11:01 AM EST, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 11:01 AM EST, 4 hours 52 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1101 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006

.UPDATE...LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION NOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH SIGNS OF IT
SLOWING DOWN AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LINED UP WELL BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST
SKIMMING FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS ALONG SAGINAW BAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL WORDING FOR RAIN AND SLEET IN THIS ZONE UP THROUGH 18Z
UNTIL FORCING CLEARS AREA TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
IN GREAT SHAPE AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES. 12Z GREEN BAY SOUNDING
SHOWS SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 900MB WITH A CORRESPONDING -9C
AT SAME LEVEL. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT
FROM THIS LEVEL UP THROUGH 400MB. PROJECTED MODEL RH FIELDS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH 850MB-700MB READINGS UNDER 30 PERCENT OVERSPREADING
THE NORTHERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...BELIEVE ANY LAKE EFFECT
OVER THE NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE JUST FLURRIES. ACROSS THE EASTERN
UPPER...SOMEWHAT BETTER FETCH LENGTH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSIONS
(NAM-WRF POINT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION LEVEL JUST SHORT OF
850MB) SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AS
SEEN PER KMQT RADAR. HOWEVER...EXPECTING ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF
ACCUMULATION GIVEN LIGHT NATURE OF ACTIVITY.

REGARDING TOMORROWS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...LATEST 12Z
NAM-WRF AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL
FOR ALL OF THE NORTHERN LOWER AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FEATURES CUT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF LATEST NIGHTS
GUIDANCE. PRELIMINARY CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH MAX OMEGA CENTERED IN
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
LOOKING RATHER OMINOUS AS MID LEVEL LOW CUTS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
WITH IMPRESSIVE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED OUT AHEAD OF IT. DO NOT
WANT TO GET TO SPECIFIC UNTIL FULL MODEL SUITE BECOMES AVAILABLE.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE INCOMING DATA AND
MAKE FINAL CALL WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

MSB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006.

MUCH OF THE FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL BE ON SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE
BEGINNING TO BOTTOM OUT OVER FAR WEST TEXAS.  WAVE WILL SLIDE UP THE
WESTERN SIDE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE FL
PENINSULA...HOW IT TRACKS AND WHAT IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE ON NORTHERN
MI THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS MORNING AS GETTING INTO THE TIMEFRAME OF
POSSIBLE WATCH CONSIDERATION.  WILL ALSO NEED TO DEAL WITH REMAINING
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS LOWER MI THIS MORNING REGARDING
TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPE ISSUES
ALONG THE BACK EDGE AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SAG IN FROM THE WEST.

FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A STORM TRACK RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN AR...
UP THROUGH SOUTHERN IN FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN EASTWARD INTO NY BY
FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS AND MORE
TOWARD THE UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN RGEM/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THAT ISNT
TO SAY THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS WONT HAPPEN...BUT THE LATTER
TRACK IS MORE OF THE CONSENSUS IDEA...AND AT THIS POINT HAVE TO DRAW
THE LINE SOMEWHERE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...BACK EDGE OF FRONTAL PRECIP BAND MAKING PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...AND LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL END ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER BEFORE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE
PRECIP OVER THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN LOWER.  EXPECT BAND TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST...CLEARING
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MIXED RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER LATER THIS
MORNING.  MEANWHILE...SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS SYNOPTIC PRECIP AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW -10C.  SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (BELOW
850MB) AND VERY DRY AIR ABOVE CBL (850-700MB MEAN RH BELOW 30
PERCENT) SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS.  TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...DRY AIR ABOVE CBL AND
SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS.  SO LAKE
CONVECTION SHOULD END OFF OF LAKES SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AND
SHOULD STILL BE MINIMAL OFF LAKE HURON.

FRIDAY...NOW FOR THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE ABOVE
EXPECTED TRACK AT THIS POINT...WILL PLAY WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
NORTHERN EDGE OF POTENTIAL WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL COULD REACH AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA (SAY EAST OF AN
HTL-APN LINE).  SO WITH THE EVENT GETTING WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND AT
LEAST A REASONABLE PROBABILITY THAT SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM...WILL TACK SEVERAL COUNTIES ONTO THE
EXISTING WATCH ALREADY ONGOING TO OUR SOUTH (GLADWIN/ARENAC/IOSCO/
ROSCOMMON/OGEMAW/OSCODA/ALCONA).  THIS CAN BE EXPANDED WEST LATER IF
TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IS IN ORDER.  BUT THIS SHOULD
GET US STARTED.  WILL TAPER SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWEST...LEAST
AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
OF NORTHWEST LOWER...INITIAL FORECAST WILL CARRY 6-9 INCHES IN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH A STRIPE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL ALONG A
CAD-GOV-PZQ AXIS.  FORECAST GRIDS IN GENERAL LOOK PRETTY GOOD...NOT
SURE HOW MUCH SNOW EVENTUALLY GETS INTO EASTERN UPPER BUT WILL WORRY
ABOUT THE DETAILS LATER.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.

JPB

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH...FRIDAY...
        MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 30, 5:34 AM EST, 10 hours 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
534 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-011100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
534 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA
AND OHIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ALPENA TO HOUGHTON LAKE.  SEE ONGOING
WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

BE ADVISED THAT A SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.  A FARTHER NORTH
TRACK COULD PUSH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...
WHILE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR THE MOST
UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING EARLY WINTER STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JPB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 5:02 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchAPXAlcona, Arenac, Gladwin, Iosco, Ogemaw, Oscoda and 1 more11 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2006Every winter storm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.