Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 092101
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

MIC019-101-092145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060709T2145Z/
BENZIE MI-MANISTEE MI-
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR MANISTEE AND BENZIE COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF EMPIRE 
TO 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANISTEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BEULAH AND ARCADIA AROUND 520 PM EDT...
  BENZONIA AROUND 525 PM EDT...
  PIERPORT AND HONOR AROUND 530 PM EDT...
  THOMPSONVILLE...PARKDALE...ONEKAMA AND MANISTEE AROUND 540 PM
  EDT...
  COPEMISH AROUND 545 PM EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4419 8583 4418 8619 4420 8636 4424 8636
      4435 8627 4448 8626 4456 8621 4470 8626
      4474 8615 4473 8610 4477 8607 4477 8584

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 092143
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

MIC019-101-092153-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060709T2145Z/
BENZIE MI-MANISTEE MI-
543 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MANISTEE AND BENZIE COUNTIES
HAS EXPIRED...

AT 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
WEAKENED. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AND NEAR THE WATCH
AREA. REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4419 8583 4418 8619 4420 8636 4424 8636
      4435 8627 4448 8626 4456 8621 4470 8626
      4474 8615 4473 8610 4477 8607 4477 8584

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NRN LOWER
MI...THANKS TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING (MLCAPES 1500-2000
J/KG)...CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED 500 MB
IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND SE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS COLD FRONT DROPS SE TO EXTEND FROM
APN-TVC BY 22-00Z (SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED). WITH
40-45KT MID LEVEL FLOW PUNCHING INTO THE REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 40KTS...AND FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND
12KFT...SEVERE STORMS A POSSIBILITY. DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING
BOWING/LINEAR SEGMENTS...ALONG WITH THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE. THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH ROUGHLY 01Z (WHEN RUC PROGS SURFACE COLD FRONT TO FINAL EXIT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA).

PER ONGOING TRENDS...FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589...IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.

SMITH

WITH THE 4 PM PACKAGE...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
NEARSHORE AREAS WHERE NORTH FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE DECENT POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATED BY THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS.

STARTING AT 01Z THIS EVENING...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER/COLD POOL (500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C) ACROSS THE EASTERN UP (CHANCE POPS)...AND NEAR THE
ANTICIPATED POSITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS S/SE COUNTIES
(CHANCE POPS...EXCEPT LIKELY FAR SE)...WITH A TREND TOWARD DRYING AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES (ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC...CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW). WHERE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING BETWEEN THESE
REGIMES...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL FADE WITH TIME...WITH A
TRANSITION FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO DRY
WEATHER BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THEN...UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
SWATH OF POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS...AND 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THUS...THE SKY COVER FORECAST WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN WILL INDICATE A TREND TOWARD
DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE/MIXING/DRYING TAKE
HOLD (ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY OFFSET THE DRYING TREND).
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...AND EVEN COOLER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER...SIMILAR TO THE UPSTREAM REGIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE (ASSUMING CLEARING SKIES) TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
EXIT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THE ADVANCE OF WARM ADVECTION/DEEP
LAYER ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...IN ADVANCE OF A COMPLEX
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAT WILL EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL US
TOWARD THE LAKES. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE EXTREMES OF THE
GFS...WHICH EJECTS THE WAVE EAST WITH MOST PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE STRONGER NAM...WHICH PUSHES THE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP N/NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS STAKE OUT THE BROAD MIDDLE
GROUND...PUSHING A CONSOLIDATED WAVE NE AND PRODUCING NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RIDGING N/NW OF THE SHORTWAVE...WOULD EXPECT
MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THAN DEPICTED BY THE NAM...BUT
A STRONGER SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESS FARTHER NORTH THAN DEPICTED BY THE
GFS. THUS...THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD UKMET
SOLUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WITH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GIVE THE MODEL TREND TOWARD A STRONGER/MORE COHERENT AND PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM...AS OPPOSED TO THE BROAD/SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST FEW
RUNS...RIDGING...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MAY ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. FOR NOW...TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER
SCENARIO...WITH NO POPS THURSDAY ACROSS THE N/W...AND TRIMMED
AFTERNOON POPS BACK TO THE FAR S/SE. IF THE 12Z TRENDS PERSIST...WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP MOST/ALL REMAINING POPS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY FORECASTS.

THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING PATTERN THAT WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH THE RESERVOIR OF HOT AIR
POOLED ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. SPILLING EAST INTO THE
LAKES...ALLOWING FOR A RAPID RECOVERY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY FRIDAY...AND 90F TEMPS SHOULD BECOME COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT MAY PUSH
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...SO A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS IN ORDER THERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
LOW...AS THE RIDGE COULD EASILY DEFLECT SHORTWAVES N/NE OF THE
REGION...HOLDING THE JET/DOMINANT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CANADA.
FURTHER...AN MCS PATTERN COULD DEVELOP INTO THE LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEST OF
THE REGION...BUT A DRIER AIRMASS ORIGINATING OVER THE W/SW...AS
OPPOSED TO A JUICIER AIRMASS FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF...MAY LIMIT
THAT POTENTIAL.

ROWLEY

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-101000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1125 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
CHARLEVOIX TO ROGERS CITY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
353 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             4 N HILLMAN             45.12N 83.90W
07/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONTMORENCY        MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W SPRATT              45.00N 83.78W
07/09/2006                   ALPENA             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

BERGER