Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 012228
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
628 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

MIC079-012238-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-060701T2300Z/
KALKASKA MI-
628 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KALKASKA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
AND EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AND NEAR THE WATCH
AREA. REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4467 8492 4468 8494 4468 8502 4469 8503
      4471 8527 4472 8525 4486 8524 4486 8486
      4467 8486

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING
WHAT GFS AND NAM-WRF SUGGESTED...VERY WARM AIR AND CAP IN PLACE
BETWEEN 850-750MBS. THROW IN THE SLOW NE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT (DRAPED OVER NE LOWER) WITH CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AROUND...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED THUS
FAR. WHERE WARM FRONT HAS CLEARED ACROSS OUR SRN CWA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM CADILLAC TO
HARRISVILLE. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MARGINAL WITHOUT THE MAXIMUM HEATING/DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS
EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...WITH 45-50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND 0-3KM
AND 0-1KM HELICITY INVOF THE WARM FRONT OF A WHOPPING 350-500
M2/S2...FEEL THAT EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF REAL DEEP CONVECTION...THIS
AREA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND DEEP STORM SCALE ROTATION. MODIFYING SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM
APX/GRB...SUGGESTS THAT EVEN WARMER AIR/CAPPING WILL SPILL IN OVER
NRN LOWER (WITH ADDITIONAL CINH OF 100 J/KG) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS BACK ACROSS NW WI/WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PRECIP-FREE PERIOD FOR ALL AREAS PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX
ALOFT...WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR WHAT
INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER FOR NRN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING.

LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT THE COLD FRONT...STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF IT HAS ALLOWED FOR MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG.
WITH THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SHIFTING THE H8 THERMAL
AXIS EASTWARD...THE CAP HAS PROVEN TO BE EFFECTIVELY BROKEN. THUS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT. BULK SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG...AT 35-40KTS WITH THESE STORMS...SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN A THREAT. THIS FRONT AND
THE ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL MARCH INTO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES
BETWEEN 4-5 PM. THIS FRONT WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY SE AND INTO NRN
LOWER THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AFTER
MODIFYING THE 18Z SOUNDING...WHERE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AT
THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IS REVEALED. BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN NRN LOWER HOWEVER...PEAK HEATING (OF WHAT WE GET) WILL BE
OVER...AND MAYBE THIS INSTABILITY IS A BIT OVERDONE. REGARDLESS...
WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN THE H8-H5 LAYER (-DIVQ 5 UNITS) AND
FRONT PROVIDING LIFT...SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT ENDING IT EARLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS
THE FRONT PASSES BY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS HANGING OUT AROUND WHITEFISH BAY THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE
SECONDARY VORT MAX TRAVERSES THE BAY THROUGH 12Z...AND ACROSS THE
M-55 CORRIDOR WHERE RICH THETA-E AIR TRIES TO HOLD ON PAST MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN UPPER TO THE MID 60S ALONG
THE M-55 CORRIDOR.     SMD

LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING, BUT ALL IN ALL, NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MID PART OR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FORECAST. HERE ARE THE DETAILS...

SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT TODAY HAS
MOVED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SFC RIDGE
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHT
SLOWLY BUILDING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD BE IN E UPPER AS
THE LAKE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE ALONG THE RIDGE IN E
UPPER. THIS WILL PROBABLY FIRE OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE CENTER OF THE E UPPER, BETWEEN M-28 AND H-40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN HAS DIURNAL
HEATING SUBSIDES. A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AND
BRINGS IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT THAT STALLS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE GFS DOESNT SHARPEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MUCH SO THE PRECIPITATION TAKES LONGER AND IS A SMALLER AREA THAN
THE NAM. SO HAVE LEFT THE 30 POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY...BOTH OF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS WITH SO MANY MINI-500
MB VORT MAXES IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. SO THE NAM
LOOKS A BIT BETTER, BUT LOOKS A LITTLE ON THE FAST SIDE. SO HAVE
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING THE REGION PARTLY
CLOUDY AND PRECIPITATION FREE.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND FOR
THAT MATTER, THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
LATE PERIODS OF THE SFC PRESSURE OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL. SO A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BASICALLY,
FOLLOWING THE HPC GUIDANCE. SO THE FORECAST WILL GO LIKE
THIS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION WITH THE 500 MB PATTERN SLOWLY MOVING AS THE 500 MB RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER THE WEEK. THE ONLY THING TO WORRY ABOUT
WOULD BE THE 500 MB TROUGH AND ITS SPEED OF MOVING OUT OF MICHIGAN.
THIS COULD BRING ABOUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO THROW INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

LUTZ

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-021000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
454 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN UPPER EARLY THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM....THEN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BETWEEN
7 PM AND 11PM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND EVEN
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...THERE EXISTS AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT ON
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...INCLUDING U.S. ROUTE 2
LOCATIONS ALONG THE MACKINAC COUNTY COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY...AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
ON THE FOURTH OF JULY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DISPATCHERS...PLEASE
PASS THIS INFORMATION TO YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

SPR/SMD