Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 022153
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
553 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

MIC011-022203-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-061002T2215Z/
ARENAC MI-
553 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ARENAC COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
AND EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4415 8384 4396 8379 4402 8331 4417 8346

$$
MSB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
420 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI TO EXTREME SW MN. THIS FRONT WILL
SAG SE TONIGHT AND EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI BY 1200 UTC
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF FRONT...
COUPLED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM IS
SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ERN UPPER MI...
WISCONSIN...AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN
IS OBVIOUSLY STORM POTENTIAL NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...CURRENT STORM ENVIRONMENT INCLUDES MLCAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG ALONG LEADING OF 20-30 KT 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EWD MOVING
500 MB SHORT WAVE OVER ERN IA WAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT. AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SE TONIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MUCH LOWER 850 MB THETA-E AIR WILL
ADVECT ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA -- INCLUDING ERN
UPPER -- WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS FALLING TO BELOW 0C. FARTHER S OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI...850 MB DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO HOLD AROUND
+10C...AS 850 MB LLJ RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM CENTRAL IA TO
EXTREME SE LOWER MI. EXPECT STORMS OVER ERN UPPER TO END BY 23Z...
WITH STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND S OF A LINE FROM NORTHPORT TO GAYLORD TO ALPENA. GREATEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR S -- PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY...FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL LOWER EARLY TUESDAY...
THEN LIFT BACK NWD DURING THE DAY. STRONG 850 MB INFLOW WILL
REDEVELOP FROM NRN MO TO SRN LAKE MI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ADVECT
850 MB DEW POINTS OF +12-14C ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM 300 MB JET N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AFTER 1800 UTC. EXPECT LINGERING
SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY OVER FAR SRN AREAS...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE LIFT
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMITH

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGWAVE SHALLOW
TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHARPEN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVES DOWN INTO SRN ONTARIO AND COLLIDES WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THEN...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING ABOUT A
PERIOD OF DRY AND COOL WEATHER...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS TO
CONTEND WITH THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WHILE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MORE SO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNS...MAINLY EARLY TERM PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...NAM IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC LOW INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT BOTH ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ON TAKING A PATH THROUGH THE STRAITS OR FAR NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. IN THE EVENING...AS THE SFC LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NW
WISCONSIN...SFC TO H8 CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE (EXPECTED TO BE LAID OUT ACROSS THE
STRAITS/FAR NRN LOWER. H8 THETA-E ADVECTION WORKS INTO MAINLY NRN
LOWER...ALONG AND LEFT OF 30-40KT H8 LLJ (OF WHICH NRN LOWER IS IN
MOST FAVORABLE POSITION FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT)...WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG H8-H5 -DIVQ IS FOCUSING IN
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG WITH WELL DEFINED H7-H5 DEFORMATION ZONE
AND STRONG H8-H7 FGEN FORCING. IF WE NEEDED MORE FORCING...IT LOOKS
LIKE WE HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 90KT JET INTO
WISCONSIN BY 06Z. THERE IS A HINT OF JET COUPLING AS ASSISTANCE MAY
BE PROVIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONGER NRN STREAM 130KT
JET. THESE RESULT IN LARGE SWATH OF H4-H2 UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO
HELP VENT THE ATMOSPHERE. ALL-IN-ALL...WE HAVE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
AROUND 7C/KM...AND THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL ALREADY
HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER. AS THE ABOVE STATED PARAMETERS INCREASE INTO
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...(FORCING INCREASES)...LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ALL OF NRN
MICHIGAN AND ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATING THE 10-30J/KG OF CINH FOUND OFF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REALIZING THE 1200 TO 1800 J/KG (LIFTING FROM
850MB). 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES FROM 50KTS NW/35KTS SE AT 00Z TO
50-60KTS BY 12Z...AS MID LEVEL WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE 50KTS. EVEN
WITH SOME SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY AROUND NRN LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAIN ACTION SHOULD BE BREWING OUT IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER...AS COVERAGE OF PRECIP
EXPANDS IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND FORCING. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CWA ALSO LEADS TO FAIRLY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
OF 200-400 M2S2 IN WARM SECTOR (NRN LOWER) AND AS HIGH AS
400-700M2/S2 IN EASTERN UPPER. ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY IF NOT ALL WILL
BE ELEVATED/NOCTURNAL IN NATURE...SO TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT LOOK AS
GOOD AS HELICITIES MAY SUGGEST. THE SAME GOES FOR DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL CAN BE ACHIEVED IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
CELLS AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. NOT A BAD SETUP FOR OCTOBER.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE THIS FRONTAL ZONE MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD...MAKING IT TO AN CADILLAC TO HARRISVILLE LINE BY 12Z. IN
ITS WAKE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT NW AND STRENGTHEN WITH STEADY 15
TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME ACROSS
MOST OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET
EVERYWHERE...AND SOME PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS.
HEADLINES FOR THIS WIND EVENT (OUTSIDE OF CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS) WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
FRONT AND WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF
NRN LOWER FOR THE MORNING WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY UNTIL FRONT PASSES. A MILD
NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...AND THIS
MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.

REST OF WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL HOLD ACROSS ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN IN
THE MORNING...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL COMMENCE FROM THE NW THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NW WITH MARINE ISSUES
CONTINUING. LOOKS LIKE ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
MOSTLY BE CONTAINED IN THE MORNING...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH THE
MANITOU PASSAGE AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE MAY
SEE SPEEDS AROUND 35 KNOTS. WILL GO WITH A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NW
TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR
USHERED IN WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FOR MAINLY NE FLOW REGIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE DEPTH LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FOR SHOWERS. WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
EXIT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE GET INTO A WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW. H9-H8 TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR NO LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS
(ACTUALLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON). TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
60S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAY OVER INTO NRN MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE MAY NEED TO SLOW
THINGS DOWN A TOUCH. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.    SMD

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-031000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
428 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES OF EASTERN UPPER. IN
ADDITION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF M-72 IN
NORTHERN LOWER...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TRAVERSE CITY TO
HARRISVILLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS IN BOTH EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN
LOWER MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BECOME LARGE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             1 S CADILLAC            44.23N 85.42W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       WEXFORD            MI   PUBLIC

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             6 S MERRITT             44.23N 84.93W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
452 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             2 NE MCBAIN             44.21N 85.19W
10/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   PUBLIC

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
503 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             STERLING                44.03N 84.02W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       ARENAC             MI   PUBLIC

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
518 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             TWINING                 44.11N 83.81W
10/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       ARENAC             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KAS