Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 022134
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
533 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

MIC069-022215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-060802T2215Z/
IOSCO MI-
533 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR IOSCO COUNTY...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
8 MILES WEST OF TAWAS CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAWAS CITY AROUND 540 PM EDT...
  EAST TAWAS AROUND 545 PM EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4429 8372 4417 8373 4417 8348 4433 8330
      4446 8329

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 022154
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
554 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

MIC069-022204-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-060802T2215Z/
IOSCO MI-
554 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR IOSCO COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED
AND EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AND NEAR THE WATCH
AREA. REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4429 8372 4417 8373 4417 8348 4433 8330
      4446 8329

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD CREEPING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT TO
LEELANAU COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF GREEN BAY AND FAR NE IOWA.
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NRN LAKE MICHIGAN HAS ENCOUNTERED THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AND COMBINED WITH LESS THAN EXPECTED HEATING...HAS AIDED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RATHER HEAVY...BUT
BRIEF RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THREAT WILL MAINLY RESIDE
FROM CADILLAC TO ROUGHLY ALPENA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY CLINGING ONTO FAR SOUTHERN STRETCHES OF THE
CWA INTO 8PM (M-55 CORRIDOR/EAST OF I-75)...BUT PURE LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE STRONGER CELLS/LINE OUT OF THE CWA BY 22-23Z.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS FAR NW LOWER.
STILL HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE SE THIRD OF THE
CWA. MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE STILL STRONG AT 60KT AT 500 MB/50
KNOTS AT 700 MB. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 50-55 KTS...WITH 0-1KM SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2...AND 0-3KM SRH 250-300 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE
OF LINEAR TYPE STORM STRUCTURE/BOWING SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH THE CAPABILITY OF SPINNING UP AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ONE MORE
THREAT TO WATCH FOR IS HEAVY RAINFALL...FRONT IS ONLY SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD...AND WITH JUICY ATMOSPHERE (PWATS 2.00) AND
STORM PROPAGATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...TRAINING CELLS COULD
BRING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING PREVIOUS
RAINFALL. NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 REPLACES THE PREVIOUS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670...WITH EMMET/CHARLEVOIX/PRESQUE
ISLE/CHEBOYGAN AND LEELANAU NOW NO LONGER IN A WATCH.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOWER THETA-E AIR BETWEEN H8-H5 WORKS INTO
NRN MICHIGAN AND FINALLY ALLOWS FOR A BREAK IN THE HOT AND CERTAINLY
HUMID WEATHER WEVE HAD. WILL JUST HANG ONTO A SMALL 30% CHANCE OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS FOR A SLIVER OF THE SE CWA NEAR THE THUMB.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGHER PRESSURE AND LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS MOVING IN
(H8 10 KNOTS AND SFC WINDS GOING TO CALM ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NW
LOWER)...AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP. STILL A TOUCH OF NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS NE LOWER AND WILL NOT HAVE IT IN FOR RIGHT NOW...BUT IF
WINDS DECOUPLE LIKE THEY WILL TO THE NW...EVENING CREW MAY NEED TO
ADD MORE FOG TO THE FORECAST.    SMD

EXTENDED FORECAST...RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RECENT HOT WEATHER AND STORM
ACTIVITY. NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THERMAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN CONUS CAUSES
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO FALL. GFS/ECMWF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGION
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW TO PRECLUDE MUCH OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(MORE ON THAT LATER). TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
MODEL ITERATIONS SHOWING EXPANSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL IN TURN FORCE EASTERN CONUS HEIGHTS TO
FALL...PUTTING OUR REGION IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY EVENINGS ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS GENERAL SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN WAKE
OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT ON
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ARE EXPECTING SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACT ON REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUATION OF DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT
INSIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND BEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PASSING NORTH SHOULD PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AIR MASS MODIFIES
UNDER EARLY AUGUST SUN AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH LATER IN THE WEEK.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...QUESTIONS ARISE WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER THAN MORE SUBDUED ECMWF. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
SWEEP A COLD FRONT...TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL WITH NO APPRECIABLE RETURN FLOW FROM THE
GULF SO NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
CONFIGURATION OF CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT DRY CONDITIONS IN TACT AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
EXPANDING HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND DEEPENING EASTERN TROUGH. DID START
BUMPING TEMPERATURES DOWNS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 10C TO 12C RANGE.

&&

.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
409 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-031000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
409 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LARGE HAIL OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CADILLAC TO
ALPENA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MONDAY IN PARTS
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS.

SMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1118 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     TSTM WND DMG     11 SW GAYLORD           44.92N 84.83W
08/02/2006                   OTSEGO             MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1217 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W MANCELONA           44.90N 85.14W
08/02/2006                   ANTRIM             MI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
423 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FREDERIC            44.80N 84.73W
08/01/2006                   CRAWFORD           MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN ALONG OLD ROUTE 27 BETWEEN FREDERIC
            AND OTSEGO COUNTY LINE

&&

SPR