Alert archive / Michigan / Flood Watches in 2006

Flood Watch 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

October 4, 20065 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flood watch at Oct 4, 2006, 4:03 AM EDT for 5 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2006, 4:03 AM EDT (08:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2006, 12:00 PM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: NWS Gaylord, MI
Flood severity: None

Counties Benzie County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 925 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 336 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Oct 4, 3:45 AM EDT, 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 3:45 AM EDT, 18 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 10:35 PM EDT, 5 hours 28 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1035 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-041000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1035 PM EDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS
WOULD INCLUDE AREAS SUCH AS TRAVERSE CITY...GRAYLING...GLADWIN AND
MANISTEE.   THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 PM
AND 5 AM.

PLEASE SEE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG US-23 FROM OSCODA TO ROGERS
CITY AND CHEBOYGAN.

GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS
WHITEFISH BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF M-32.  SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 4, 12:44 AM EDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1244 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     HAIL             MANISTEE                44.24N 86.33W
10/04/2006  E0.75 INCH       MANISTEE           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASULLIVA

Local storm report, Oct 4, 12:47 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1247 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MANISTEE            44.20N 86.33W
10/04/2006                   MANISTEE           MI   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON TRUCK. WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF A
            HOME.

&&

JKEYSOR

Local storm report, Oct 4, 1:08 AM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
108 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MESICK                  44.40N 85.72W
10/04/2006                   WEXFORD            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED

&&

ASULLIVA

Local storm report, Oct 4, 1:26 AM EDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
126 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CADILLAC                44.25N 85.42W
10/04/2006                   WEXFORD            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOWNED POWER LINES

&&

ASULLIVA

Local storm report, Oct 4, 2:14 AM EDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

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Local storm report, Oct 4, 3:58 AM EDT, 5 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 3, 9:44 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		91 min
Oct 3, 10:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Benzie, Leelanau, Manistee	64 min
Oct 3, 11:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Grand Traverse, Wexford	60 min
Oct 3, 11:15 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		87 min
Oct 3, 11:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Kalkaska	56 min
Oct 3, 11:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Manistee	62 min
Oct 3, 11:57 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	APX	Manistee	48 min
Oct 4, 12:17 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Wexford	58 min
Oct 4, 12:44 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Manistee	19 min
Oct 4, 1:05 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Missaukee	46 min
Oct 4, 1:10 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Wexford	21 min
Oct 4, 1:28 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Roscommon	43 min
Oct 4, 1:58 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Gladwin, Ogemaw	37 min
Oct 4, 2:21 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	APX		54 min

Nearby

Flood Watches in Michigan, 2006 Every flood watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.