Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
256 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
OFB FROM CONVECTION ACROSS KS AND OK CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS HELPED ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN TX PNHDL. WITH CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SW TX PNHDL AND WWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE OFB...BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SRN FCST AREA AND LEFT NRN HALF OF THE TX AND THE OK PNHDL IN SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS THAT ROLL OUT OF NE NM/SE CO. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE LAST SHOT OF PRECIP FOR A WHILE UNFORTUNATELY AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK TO THE EAST TOMORROW AND WED.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SLOW CLIMB THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. DID NOT GO QUITE AS BULLISH ON
MAXES WED AS RIDGE DOESNT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT DOES ON THUR.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH NOT ONLY WITH TEMPS
BUT STRENGTH OF RIDGE AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ISOLD
AFTN/EVE STORMS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE WEEK EITHER AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS NOW INDICATE DEEPLY MIXED BL WILL ALLOW ELEVATED MOISTURE
TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY. WITH A VERY DRY/MIXED BL HOWEVER...
INVERTED-V SOUNDING INDICATES LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST PRECIP WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND DRY MICROBURSTS WOULD BE
FAVORED. LEFT FCST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE DAY BY DAY
TO SEE IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

ECMWF AND GFS STILL STRUGGLING TO LATCH ON TO SOLUTION FOR LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE SEEN MODELS FLIP BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE CNTRL US TO TROF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SWLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE BUT
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH A SMALL SHOT AT SEEING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES...BUT SIMILAR TO THE ISOLATED NATURE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  94  67  98 /  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  66  94  69  99 /  20  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              63  94  66  98 /  20  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  71  96  70 102 /  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              67  99  67 103 /  30   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  63  96  65 100 /  30   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               67  96  69  99 /  30   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 63  95  65 100 /  20   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  66  97  67 102 /  20  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                64  95  67  98 /  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                66  94  68  98 /  20  10   0   0
PAMPA TX                   69  94  70  99 /  30   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  96  70  99 /  30   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  98  71 101 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED FOR LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

COCKRELL

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