Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
310 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...DECENT PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE
PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES BUT CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH
TODAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.  BEST POPS WILL RESIDE IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL.  SOME VERY
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE DAY.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING
HOURS AND MAY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS THERE
THROUGH 5Z. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WELL AS
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY
EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM/CO MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE NORTHERLY BY THIS TIME SO IT
APPEARS LESS LIKELY.  HAVE GENERALLY GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.  THE MEX LOOKS TO BE UNDERDOING THE
WARMING SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.   THERE MAY BE A WIND SHIFT LATE
SUNDAY AS THE LEE SIDE TROF KICKS OUT BUT IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS THE
LOW REDEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                58  82  59  88 /  30  20   0   0
BEAVER OK                  60  85  59  90 /  30  20   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              57  82  57  90 /  50  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  61  86  63  90 /  30  20   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  85  60  91 /  40  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  57  83  57  87 /  40  20  10   0
CLARENDON TX               61  84  60  87 /  30  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 58  82  58  90 /  50  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  58  86  60  91 /  40  20  10   0
HEREFORD TX                57  82  57  88 /  40  20  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                60  84  59  87 /  30  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   61  84  62  85 /  30  20   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                62  86  61  88 /  30  20   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              64  87  61  90 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

JOHNSON

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-011100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
350 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JOHNSON

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