Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO AS WELL AS ALONG OLD AND VAGUE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LIKELY SEE THE
SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND AND MOST STORMS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE ANOTHER ROUND TOMORROW WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
SCENARIO...BUT A BIT FURTHER WEST ALONG THE SFC TROF AXIS AND FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM AND CO. SFC MOISTURE FIELDS HAVE NOT MIXED
OUT QUITE AS MUCH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE THIS TOMORROW AS
WELL...BOTH OF WHICH COULD HELP GET MORE RAINFALL TOWARDS THE SFC.
ADJUSTED POPS UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE OK PNHDL WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE...AND UPPED POPS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT WEST AND NORTH AS
WELL.

HELD OFF ADDING POPS FOR TUESDAY AS MODELS HELD SFC TROF/DRYLINE
FURTHER WEST THAN RUNS YESTERDAY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BIT
STRONGER CAP WITH SWLY FLOW AT 850 AND 700MB. LOCATION OF SFC
TROF/DRYLINE WILL AFFECT FIRE WX CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBILITY OF
LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE WRN TX PNHDL ON TUESDAY LED TO ISSUANCE OF
FIRE WX WATCH. STILL IFFY AS TO WHETHER STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
AREA OF LOWEST RH VALUES. MODELS DEPICT BREEZY AND GUSTY SLY WIND TO
THE EAST OF THE SFC TROF WHERE RH VALUES STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS ON THIS.

BEYOND TUESDAY...NWLY FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT AS UPR
LVL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROF STARTS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS WITH WARMEST DAYS
LATE IN THE WEEK (THU/FRI). PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NIL FOR NOW...BUT
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW SFC FLOW DEVELOPS AND IF ANY MOISTURE CAN RETURN
INTO THE REGION.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  94  62  94 /  20  10  10   0
BEAVER OK                  62  94  63  97 /  30  20  20   0
BOISE CITY OK              58  94  58  91 /  30  30  30   0
BORGER TX                  64  95  65  98 /  20  10  10   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  99  61  99 /  20  10  10   0
CANYON TX                  61  96  62  97 /  20  10  10   0
CLARENDON TX               64  97  64  96 /  20  10  10   0
DALHART TX                 57  96  58  95 /  30  20  20   0
GUYMON OK                  61  94  61  97 /  30  20  20   0
HEREFORD TX                59  98  61  98 /  20  20  20   0
LIPSCOMB TX                62  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PAMPA TX                   63  92  64  95 /  20  10  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  96  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              66  99  67  99 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...AND TEXAS.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...AND SHERMAN.

&&

03/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-221100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

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