Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 90 PERCENT AREA WIDE
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW COME
TOGETHER. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SEVERE WX
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF US. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE ALSO RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME CONVECTION ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF TO ENTER THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE REMAINING THE NORTH AND EAST ONCE AGAIN. AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS
DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S (ALTHOUGH MAY SEE A FEW 90S AS WELL). SIDED MORE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MAY BE DELAYED A BIT.
DECENT COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAGGING DYNAMICS AND
EASTERLY FLOW MAY PERSIST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY LATE THURSDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM MEX FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS.

24/MJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  61  47  73 /  90  60  10  10
BEAVER OK                  46  60  47  76 /  90  70  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              43  63  45  76 /  90  50  20  10
BORGER TX                  48  64  50  76 /  90  60  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              50  67  48  78 /  90  50  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  63  46  74 /  90  60  10  10
CLARENDON TX               51  63  48  75 /  90  60  10  10
DALHART TX                 46  65  47  76 /  90  50  20  10
GUYMON OK                  46  62  47  76 /  90  70  20  10
HEREFORD TX                50  67  47  74 /  90  50  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                45  61  46  74 /  90  70  20  10
PAMPA TX                   46  62  48  75 /  90  70  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                51  63  47  76 /  90  70  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              53  66  48  76 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

24/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-061100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ018-052300-
ARMSTRONG TX-
529 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN ARMSTRONG COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOODNIGHT AT
529 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAIL BETWEEN PEA AND ONE HALF INCH SIZE AS WELL AS WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  BRIEF BURSTS OF HAIL COULD ALSO RESULT IN THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN A THIN LAYER OF SMALL HAIL.  HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING ON AREA
ROADWAYS...RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PEOPLE IN ARMSTRONG COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CLAUDE...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ019-052315-
DONLEY TX-
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN DONLEY COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARENDON AT
543 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL BETWEEN PEA AND ONE HALF INCH SIZE AS WELL AS WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL ALSO
RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PEOPLE IN DONLEY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CLARENDON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JORDAN

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