Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE SHORT AND SWEET DUE TO ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER.
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ALONG A DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED
TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO MORE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY. SOME CONVECTION IS FIRING
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE DEEPER MIXED ATMOSPHERE BUT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

TOMORROW COULD AGAIN SEE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
PROGRESS A COLD FRONT MAKES INTO THE PANHANDLES. MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MOST
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING MEANING ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA EXPERIENCES WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED POPS SOME GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DECENT UPPER S/W TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH CAA AND CLOUDS BRINGING HIGH TEMPS DOWN
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. AGAIN UPPED POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND POPS END.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  79  50  69 /  20  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  55  72  51  63 /  40  40  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              50  71  45  64 /  10  30  30  40
BORGER TX                  60  75  50  68 /  20  30  30  40
BOYS RANCH TX              57  80  52  72 /  10  30  30  30
CANYON TX                  57  84  53  73 /  20  30  30  20
CLARENDON TX               58  82  53  71 /  40  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 53  73  49  69 /  10  20  20  40
GUYMON OK                  55  73  50  64 /  20  30  30  40
HEREFORD TX                58  86  55  74 /  10  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                60  75  52  64 /  40  40  30  40
PAMPA TX                   60  76  48  66 /  30  40  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                60  83  54  69 /  50  40  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              60  84  56  71 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
322 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
322 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE ON ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 W GROOM               35.20N 101.14W
05/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       CARSON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
543 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             15 N ALLISON            35.82N 100.10W
05/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       HEMPHILL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 47 NEAR OK BORDER

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
558 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             WHITE DEER              35.43N 101.17W
05/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RN

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