Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING WITH RAPID
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT HAS
BEEN SLOW OFF THE CAPROCK...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SEEN IN THE
MIDLEVELS ON 12Z SOUNDING...SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SHORT SEQUENCE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES /SOUTHWEST KANSAS CURRENTLY
AND APPROACHING WAVE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO/...LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE MOIST AIR AND INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE TAILORED
POPS ACCORDINGLY...WITH HIGHEST IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND
LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE COVERAGE OUGHT TO BE SOMEWHAT SPARSER.
STEEP LAPSE RATES CERTAINLY SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT FROM ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS THAT FORM...AND DRIER MIDLEVELS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
AS WELL. NOW ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS A BIT MORE HEATING AND THE
ATMOSPHERE /SHOULD/ BE SET.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
UPSLOPE SFC WINDS ENSUE. SHORTWAVE TROF NORTH OF MONTANA THIS MORNING
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER SCALE TROF OVER
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED. HOWEVER THE
ENERGY PASSES OVER THE PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SO LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RETICENT TO ERODE TOMORROW AS LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
NEARS...SO HAVE COOLED MAX TEMPS BACK DOWN TO LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
THE CAVEAT THAT THEY COULD GO EVEN LOWER. GIVEN MOISTURE IS STILL
PRESENT...AND DRIER AIR NOT ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON...HAVE ALSO
REINTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH WITH COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
MONDAY...WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN RATHER
THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

BEHIND THIS NEXT WAVE...A SUPPORTING SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...HELPING CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN TO OFFSET COOL AIR...BUT MAX TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH BROKEN SKIES.
SFC HIGH FINALLY SETTLES DOWN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE LEE TROF
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BENEATH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW. DEEPENING LEE TROF ON THURSDAY SPELLS SUNNY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND GUSTY WINDS
AS MIDLEVEL SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER. A SEQUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROFS MOVE
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND WITH MOISTURE STILL PRESENT AS A RESULT OF THE
LOWLEVEL JET...COULD SEE STORMS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS A
BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED STORMS ON FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES.
HAVE LEFT POPS AS INHERITED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY START TO SEE
FIRE WX CONCERNS RETURNING TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIODS AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ERODE...WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES WEDNESDAY ON...WITH WEDNESDAY
JUST ON THE COOL SIDE...AND FRIDAY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE MOISTURE STARTS TO ERODE AND HEATING BECOMES MORE EFFICIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                58  73  58  75 /  40  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  58  73  57  74 /  40  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              55  71  57  73 /  30  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  61  74  62  77 /  40  20  20  10
BOYS RANCH TX              58  73  59  75 /  30  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  57  74  59  76 /  40  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               61  74  60  77 /  50  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 56  72  57  74 /  30  20  20  10
GUYMON OK                  57  72  59  75 /  30  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                56  74  58  75 /  40  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                59  74  57  75 /  50  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   60  73  61  75 /  50  20  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                62  76  60  79 /  50  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              63  78  62  79 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

KRAMAR

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-111100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO HEREFORD TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT THE
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT TO HELP
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES MONDAY...
BUT WILL ONLY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT.
STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUP ACTIVATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

GOEHRING

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