Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA HAS
ALLOWED FOR BETTER SURFACE HEATING THAN YESTERDAY WHICH IS ALREADY
CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE FIRST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THEN SPREAD
EAST INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT INSTABILITY AROUND 2K J/G BUT WITH WEAK 0-3KM SHEAR PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY DAWN AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR INVADES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY REBOUND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST GFS HAS
SPED THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT UP TO MOVING IT THROUGH BEFORE PEAK
HEATING ON FRIDAY...BUT I FEEL THIS IS A BIT FAST. ENSEMBLE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PLUS
I DO NOT LIKE THE LOOK OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...YET LOW WAVELENGTH
UPPER PATTERN THE LATEST GFS HAS SET UP. SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  82  60  82 /  40  20  10  10
BEAVER OK                  60  81  59  83 /  30  10  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              59  79  55  82 /  30  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  66  85  64  85 /  30  10  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              62  84  61  85 /  40  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  59  82  58  84 /  40  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               65  85  63  84 /  40  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 60  80  57  83 /  40  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  60  84  59  83 /  30  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                59  80  59  83 /  50  30  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  83  59  84 /  30  10   0  10
PAMPA TX                   65  81  62  81 /  30  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                66  87  62  85 /  40  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              68  87  64  86 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-281100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
320 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND
AGAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 W BOISE CITY         36.73N 102.71W
08/27/2006  E60 MPH          CIMARRON           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ABOUT ONE INCH DEEP -
            LEAVES FROM TREES STICKING TO WINDOWS BECAUSE THE WIND
            BLOWING SO HARD.

&&

KJS