Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
404 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN PANHANDLES NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS MODEL
FORECASTS...HOWEVER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL FOSTER CONTINUED RETREAT OF DRYLINE.
INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE GIVING RISE TO CONGESTUS/CB
DEVELOPMENT AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED WILL SEE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP...WITH CONCERNS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND MAY
HELP DEVELOP MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.

COLD FRONT WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS DENVER. EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE ON THIS
ACCELERATED TRACK AND BE THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHUNT EAST AS SFC LOW MOVES
EAST...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN ZONES MAY INTERACT WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE MANIPULATED POPS ON MONDAY FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN...AND SO TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY.

CANADIAN ORIGIN AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER. 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE CHOSEN MIN AND MAX TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR THESE PERIODS. SFC RIDGE THEN MOVES OFF AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS RESUME AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SLOW WARMUP CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS
THURSDAY EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE SLOWING EJECTION OF UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS RIDGE BUILDS IN TO ITS NORTH AND GIVES
THE IMPRESSION OF CUTTING OFF THE CIRCULATION. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS OFF OF GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...AND MAY INSPIRE SHOWER FORMATION LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE MEX NUMBERS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE
ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                54  74  36  59 /  30  10  10   0
BEAVER OK                  57  61  36  60 /  20  20  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              50  59  32  56 /  20  10  10   0
BORGER TX                  59  71  41  61 /  30  10  10   0
BOYS RANCH TX              54  72  39  61 /  20  10  10   0
CANYON TX                  52  76  38  61 /  30  10  10   0
CLARENDON TX               62  80  42  62 /  40  20  10   0
DALHART TX                 50  66  35  58 /  20  10  10   0
GUYMON OK                  51  62  34  59 /  20  10  10   0
HEREFORD TX                53  74  37  61 /  20  10  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                59  73  37  62 /  40  20  10   0
PAMPA TX                   61  71  39  59 /  40  10  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                64  80  44  63 /  30  20  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              65  82  47  65 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

KRAMAR

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
341 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-240000-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
341 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AS A DRYLINE REMAINS EAST OF THIS AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALSO...EMERGENCY RESPONDERS AND FIRE FIGHTERS
SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER.

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
106 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             8 NW DALHART            36.14N 102.62W
04/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       DALLAM             TX   COOP OBSERVER

            DIME TO NICKEL HAIL REPORTED...5 MINUTE DURATION

&&

MRK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
458 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

TXZ009-232245-
ROBERTS TX-
458 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN ROBERTS COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIAMI AT 458
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ROBERTS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MJ/MRK

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