Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE DEEPLY MIXED
ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO HOLD HERE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM AROUND BEAVER TO DALHART. IMPRESSIVE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD CAUSE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED
WITH A GOOD SHEARING PROFILE MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING. H85 WINDS OF 25-35KTS SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TRAINING AND A GOOD SIZE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT CAUSING THE
GENERAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH BY MORNING.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE SATURDAY THOUGH THE FOCUS SHOULD BE
NEAR THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATE SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL AIR WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT
WEEK...BUT AN UPPER LOW HOLDS TOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY WARMING TO BE SLOW.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  86  64  82 /  40  60  60  40
BEAVER OK                  64  85  65  80 /  70  60  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              60  79  60  75 /  70  60  60  50
BORGER TX                  68  86  67  81 /  50  60  60  50
BOYS RANCH TX              67  88  64  84 /  50  60  60  40
CANYON TX                  66  90  63  82 /  40  60  60  40
CLARENDON TX               69  89  68  84 /  50  60  60  40
DALHART TX                 63  83  60  80 /  60  60  60  50
GUYMON OK                  66  83  64  81 /  70  60  60  50
HEREFORD TX                66  90  63  85 /  40  60  60  40
LIPSCOMB TX                66  85  67  81 /  60  60  60  50
PAMPA TX                   67  84  68  79 /  50  60  60  50
SHAMROCK TX                70  91  70  85 /  50  60  60  40
WELLINGTON TX              71  94  71  86 /  50  60  60  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
319 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
319 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...MAINLY ALONG AN NORTH OF A NARA VISA NEW MEXICO TO ALLISON
LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

SCHNEIDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

TXZ006-260030-
HARTLEY TX-
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN HARTLEY COUNTY...

AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL HARTLEY COUNTY MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
807 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             2 SW DALHART            36.04N 102.54W
08/25/2006  E0.75 INCH       HARTLEY            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRK

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