Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
200 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SHORTLY AS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACT WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT.  SPC HAS UPGRADED THE CWA TO A MODERATE RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A DECENT BET.
WOULD NOT DOUBT A WATCH ISSUANCE IN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO 60-80% AREAWIDE AND KEPT SEVERE MENTION IN ZONES FOR
THE FIRST PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS AND TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SO CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE AREA.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE
CLEAR OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY VEER BACK TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.  THE
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MOIST ENOUGH...COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HAVE NOT DEVIATED
TOO MUCH FROM THE GFS (AND PREVIOUS FORECAST).  FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH THE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  DID NOT TRY TO SPLIT HAIRS
WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP CHANCES SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED
THE MEX GUIDANCE AND BROAD-BRUSHED 20 POPS AREAWIDE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MEX DID SEEM A BIT TOO COOL AT TIMES (NAMELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY) SO DID BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE FOR
THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  86  65  89 /  70  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  64  88  65  91 /  70  20  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              60  85  61  92 /  70  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  67  89  68  92 /  70  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              66  89  66  90 /  60  20  20  10
CANYON TX                  65  87  63  90 /  60  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               64  88  67  90 /  80  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 63  87  62  92 /  60  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  64  88  65  93 /  80  20  10  10
HEREFORD TX                63  87  62  91 /  60  20  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                66  89  65  91 /  70  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   65  86  66  90 /  70  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                68  90  66  92 /  80  20  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              67  90  67  92 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

JOHNSON

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
245 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...A WEAK COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA...RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS...AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS A
RESULT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANDRADE

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