Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE
STRONGER SFC WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLES IN RESPONSE. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLIDE TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH ANY
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING AND SURFACE HEATING SO
EXPECTING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AGAIN WITH RH VALUES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER AGAIN. A BIT CONCERNED OF THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BRINGING DEW
POINTS UP INTO THE 50S. RUC...NAM12 AND GFS MODELS SHOW THAT AIRMASS
DRYING OUT AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE
PANHANDLES...SO STILL CONFIDENT THAT RH VALUES WILL DROP SUFFICIENTLY
TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WATCH TO A
RED FLAG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH THE LEAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE
EXTREME SE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH
IF WINDS STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 3Z TO 4Z AND MOVES THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY 12Z. THE POST FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING A
BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE LOW RH VALUES...AND A MORE RELAXED EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT. SO FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A 587 HIGH OVER THE
PANHANDLES.

LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. COULD BE A RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMP DAY. CURRENT
GRIDS HAVE RECORD HIGHS FOR BORGER...BUT GOING JUST UNDER THE RECORD
FOR AMARILLO. MOS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S
AND RIDGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING WITH NEW RUNS. MAY NEED TO
UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IF TREND CONTINUES. NOT THINKING THAT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AS WINDS SHOULD STAY DOWN...BUT RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET WITH THE WARM TEMPS AND DRY SW WINDS. LL JET SETS
UP AND BEGINS TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST
AND ALLOWS A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. THE DRY AIR ADVECTION...STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPS WILL MEAN ANOTHER FIRE DANGER DAY ON SATURDAY.
APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES SO
NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  87  48  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              79  42  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  89  55  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              85  48  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  82  46  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               86  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 82  42  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  84  45  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                81  46  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  48  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   86  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                86  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              88  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...AND TEXAS.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...AND
     WHEELER.

&&

03/14

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