Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE
NORTHERN HALF AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ARE SEEING CONVECTION BREAK
OUT ONCE AGAIN ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK GOOD AGAIN AREAWIDE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA
HAS BOUNDARY TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART WILL HAVE
EXTRA INSTABILITY FROM WHATEVER DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE REALIZED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING WEAK VORTICIES LEFT OVER FROM THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BIT OF EXTRA LIFT FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SATURATED
GROUND...HAVE LEFT FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR NOW AS IS BUT THIS
MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING FROM LEFT- OVER CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

MIDWEEK LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER AS WE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TO THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
WESTWARD WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE A BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES WED AND THUR.
HOWEVER...MODELS STILL INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE REGION...AFTERNOON
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER. GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN TRYING TO
WARM THINGS UP TOO FAST SO KEPT MAX TEMPS UNDER GUIDANCE AND CLOSER
TO CLIMATOLOGY NUMBERS.

WENT WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR FRONTAL TIMING THIS WEEKEND. DIFFERENCE IN
THE 12Z MODEL HAS MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTED
TEMPS AND POP CHANCES IN THE GUIDANCE. PRETTY MUCH LEFT TEMPS THE
SAME EXCEPT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHERE I KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE BUT ADJUSTED POPS TO SPREAD CHANCES OUT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE HEAVY PRECIP BY THIS WEEKEND AGAIN WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR STORMS.

FCSTID = JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  80  66  87 /  70  60  50  20
BEAVER OK                  65  83  65  95 /  60  40  40  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  80  64  87 /  60  40  30  20
BORGER TX                  67  81  68  91 /  60  50  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              66  82  65  88 /  70  60  50  20
CANYON TX                  65  81  65  87 /  70  60  50  20
CLARENDON TX               68  86  67  89 /  70  50  50  20
DALHART TX                 64  80  64  86 /  60  50  40  20
GUYMON OK                  65  83  66  91 /  60  40  40  20
HEREFORD TX                65  81  65  85 /  70  60  50  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67  84  66  94 /  60  40  40  20
PAMPA TX                   66  81  68  90 /  60  50  50  20
SHAMROCK TX                68  86  68  89 /  70  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              70  88  69  90 /  70  50  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...AND WHEELER.

&&

03/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-221100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...RESULTING IN THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GLENRIO...TO DUMAS AND CACTUS...TO CANADIAN
...UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT....AS WELL AS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE CALLED UPON
FOR FLOOD REPORTS.

COCKRELL

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