Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO INITIATE JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW CELLS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP
LONG THE SURFACE TROF AXIS AS WELL...BUT MORE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
LIBERAL TO TUCUMCARI. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  THERE MAY BE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT (SEE THE SWODY1 FOR MORE SPECIFICS) AND WILL
MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE ZONES. DO NOT EXPECT THE SURFACE
FRONT TO CLEAR THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY
WILL HANG UP JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THEN WASH OUT ON THURSDAY WITH
PREDOMINATELY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY MAX
TEMPS.  FRONT WILL MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE TOMORROW NIGHT AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF EXITS THE ROCKIES.  IT APPEARS THAT MCS DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE QUITE
SUFFICIENT.  HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY IN THE
NORTHEAST TO CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST.  WE ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW SO CANNOT RULE SEVERE WEATHER OUT AT THIS
TIME. THIS MCS SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY.  WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...HAVE
RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE
COOLER MAV TEMPS ALSO LOOK DECENT SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR AT THE
MOMENT.

THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR WEST...
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.   THIS WILL KEEP US IN NORTHWESTERLY (TO NORTHERLY)
FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOR MOST AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE BOTH
ADVERTISING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA AND SERVE
AS ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS WELL.  WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE UNDERCUT THE MEX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.  BY TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND
BACK INTO THE MID 90S AS THE RIDGE INCHES SLOW EAST AND H85 TEMPS
APPROACH 30C ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  90  62  87 /  20  50  50  20
BEAVER OK                  67  87  64  89 /  50  60  60  20
BOISE CITY OK              63  87  61  86 /  40  60  60  20
BORGER TX                  69  92  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
BOYS RANCH TX              67  94  65  89 /  20  50  50  20
CANYON TX                  65  91  61  88 /  20  50  50  20
CLARENDON TX               69  91  66  87 /  20  50  50  20
DALHART TX                 66  91  62  86 /  30  50  50  20
GUYMON OK                  69  88  64  88 /  40  60  60  20
HEREFORD TX                66  91  62  88 /  20  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                69  86  64  88 /  40  60  60  20
PAMPA TX                   67  89  65  85 /  30  60  60  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  88 /  30  60  60  20
WELLINGTON TX              69  92  68  88 /  30  60  60  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

JOHNSON

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
310 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-221100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
310 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND AN APPROACHING MINOR UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE STORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANDRADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
606 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

OKZ001-212345-
CIMARRON OK-
606 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY...

AT 606 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF GRIGGS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.  EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER ON
AREA ROADWAYS.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             7 W CLAUDE              35.11N 101.49W
06/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 W CLAUDE              35.11N 101.49W
06/21/2006  E60 MPH          ARMSTRONG          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             TURPIN                  36.87N 100.88W
06/21/2006  E1.25 INCH       BEAVER             OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN TURPIN

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             3 NW SPEARMAN           36.23N 101.23W
06/21/2006  E0.88 INCH       HANSFORD           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED PENNY TO NICKLE HAIL IN CENTER OF
            COUNTY BETWEEN SPEARMAN AND GRUVER.

&&

JJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             3 NW SPEARMAN           36.23N 101.23W
06/21/2006  E0.88 INCH       HANSFORD           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED PENNY TO NICKEL HAIL IN CENTER OF
            COUNTY BETWEEN SPEARMAN AND GRUVER.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME AND CURRENCY SPELLING

JJB/KRAMAR