Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE,OVER EASTERN CANADIAN,WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS STRENGTHENING STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE,BUILDING
TO OUR SOUTH,WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
WINDS WILL BACK OFF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND DAYBREAK,BRINGING A BIT MORE
CLOUDS,FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,SOME MORE WIND,AND EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...INDEED WE ARE STILL
TRACKING A HISTORICAL WIND EVENT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG IT...WHICH FURTHER
AUGMENTED THE TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND. WE
HAD A FEW REPORTS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL AS WELL. EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE
INCLUDED MANY TREES DOWN...POWER LINES AND POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION. IT IS RARE TO ACTUALLY VERIFY A HIGH WIND WARNING WITH
MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER. WE NOT ONLY DID THIS AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WHICH REPORTED A PEAK WIND RIGHT AT 60
MPH...BUT WE DID IT AT MANY OTHER LOCALITIES. STRATTON MOUNTAIN
REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 143 MPH...PERHAPS THE HIGHEST WIND EVER
REPORTED IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC STATEMENT
(PNS) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS EARLIER
FORECASTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY STEEPEN FOR AWHILE
INTO EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE RISE COUPLET...YET TO
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. AFTER DARK...WE EXPECT THE
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO SLOWLY ABATE. THE EVENING CREW CAN DECIDE TO
END EARLY IF NEED BE.

COLD AIR HAS ALREADY RECLAIMED MOST OF OUR REGION. H8 TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO CRASH TO ABOUT -16C OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. AS COLD AS THE
AIR IS...AN ANTICYLONIC FLOW SHOULD MITIGATE ANY EXTENSIVE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX
OVERNIGHT BUT THAT IS ONLY BECAUSE YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT A SNOW SQUALL OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. KEPT MENTION OF SUCH IN MOST PLACES. AFTER THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...H8 TEMPS WILL PLUMMET EVEN MORE...DOWN TO
ABOUT -24C DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

THE SFC-H8 WIND WILL VEER BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
MIGHT TAP LAKE EFFECT AND POSSIBLY SEND IT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
ANTICYCLONIC SO WE DONT THINK WE WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
NOW.

WENT CLOSE TO THE MAV NOS TONIGHT...BUT LOWER THAN ALL MOS PRODUCTS
ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF SNOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HIGH
WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT (NOT A GOOD RADIATIONAL
EVENT)...WE DONT THINK TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE MAV
FORECASTS SATURDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT AT THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS). WENT
CLOSE TO MAV NOS ON SUNDAY

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS IN OUR AREA. A FEW CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS WILL PASS
THRU IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A PERIODIC CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF S/WV EMERGING ONTO THE SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AND ITS POSSIBLE PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE
ONLY MODEL TO PHASE BOTH STREAMS OVER THE EAST CTRL STATES BY FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE 00Z GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH WEAKER.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS FA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL TAKE A NOSEDIVE LATE FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW SWINGS BY AND
DRAGS ARCTIC AIR IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18/1800Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH
P6SM SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET...AND OCCASIONAL SKC. MAIN
PROBLEM WILL BE STRONG SFC WINDS AT 270-300 DEGREES INTO THIS
EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS STILL POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 22Z-00Z WITH WINDS GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 25
KTS AFT 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS TO OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WAS NOT
ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
ARCTIC COLD WILL MOVE IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS. RIVER
FLOWS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AND MORE ICE LIKELY TO FORM ON RIVERS
AND LAKES. WE ISSUE OUR FOURTH WINTER SPRING/FLOOD OUTLOOK. PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PRODUCT ALBESFALY FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CTZ001-013 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ001-025 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-
     063>066-082>084 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
  ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NYZ032-033 FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO NOON
     SATURDAY.
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VTZ013>015 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KELCH
AVIATION...MAGLARAS
HYDROLOGY...MAGLARAS

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