Wind Advisory 9, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A VERY MOIST INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.6 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CENTERED ON THE HUDSON VALLEY TODAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. THERE HAS
ALREADY BEEN AN INCH TO 2.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY.
WE DID NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH WITH THE EARLY-MORNING FORECAST AS WE
EXPECT THAT RIVERS WILL NOT EXCEED BANKFULL STAGES.

THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED IN MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER
SURGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE TIED TO A VORTICITY BUNDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL GYRE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

AND THESE SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND A COOL POOL OF AIR ALOFT ENHANCES
THE ATMOSPHERES INSTABILITY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LAKE
GEORGE-NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION. HOWEVER...THESE ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR IN THE EVENING. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY
BRIEFLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THIS PERIOD WERE
DERIVED FROM A MIX OF NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE. WE NOTED THAT
THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODELS HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR
MONDAY WERE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE
AVIATION AND NESTED GRID FORECASTS. SO WE DID NOT BLEND THE LOWER
NUMBERS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE FORECAST INTO THE MIX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...UNLESS A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY THE NORTH
AMERICAN MESOSCALE MODEL. THE AVIATION DOES NOT INDICATE
THIS...HOWEVER. AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND UNITED KINGDOM MODELS
SUPPORT THE AVIATION. THE NORTH AMERICAN WAS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN
THE AVIATION OR CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IN BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER THAT...A SLOW
MODERATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. WE TWEAKED THE FORECAST PARAMETERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY USING THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE
AVIATION MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR IN THE HUDSON AND HOUSATONIC
VALLEYS AND MVFR TO IFR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND AROUND 3500 FEET MSL. VISIBILITY WILL
GENERALLY BE 3 TO 5 MILES IN RAIN AND MIST. VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT MID AFTERNOON AS THE STEADY RAIN ENDS BUT WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH FOG
AND DRIZZLE. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE TERM...WET FLAG DAY BEST DESCRIBES THE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. A
SOAKING RAIN WILL LEAVE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SPORADIC TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND THROUGH MONDAY TO DAMPEN FUELS TO THE POINT WHERE THE
THREAT OF IGNITION WILL BE NEARLY NIL. IT ALMOST GOES WITHOUT SAYING
THAT THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AT LEAST 70 PERCENT...AND
PROBABLY HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY. AND...THERE WONT BE MUCH WIND TO
SPEAK OF...MAYBE 10 MILES AN HOUR OR SO IN THE HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS...LOWER SPEEDS IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS ON SMALLER RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY
HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY GAGED SITE SHOWING ANY KIND OF
TROUBLE SO FAR IS CANAJOHARIE CREEK WHICH WENT AN INCH OR TWO
OVER ITS 6 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. AT THAT LEVEL THE FLOODING IS JUST A
NUISANCE AND NOT SERIOUS SO AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW
MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MOSTLY DUE TO TIMING. SO FAR
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS STAYED WEST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES BUT
THE PRECIPITATION AREA IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD SO THE
HOUSATONIC MAY NOT YET BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS. SINCE
ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS WERE SO DRY...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
RAIN IS SOAKING INTO THE GROUND. ASIDE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE
ONLY MAIN STEM RIVERS THAT MIGHT TURN UP TO BE PROBLEMS COULD BE THE
MOHAWK AT UTICA OR THE SACANDAGA ABOVE SACANDAGA RESERVOIR. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL END UP BEING A BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HEMMERICH
LONG TERM...HEMMERICH
AVIATION...KILPATRICK
FIRE WEATHER...HEMMERICH
HYDROLOGY...KILPATRICK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-241200-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
414 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND WILL TOTAL FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LESS
RAINFALL...PERHAPS HALF AN INCH WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND LESS WIDESPREAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THEY WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT...AND
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH TONIGHT. THE
RAIN WILL BRING SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS CLOSE TO BANK FULL...BUT NO
FLOODING ON RIVERS IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE LOCAL
FLOODING OF LOW LYING...POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...REPORTS
OF RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH WOULD BE APPRECIATED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.