Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION MIDDAY TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 70 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 340K.  AN UPPER TROF EXTENDED
SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST.
ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC
WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD. THERE WAS A SECOND HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND
A FRONTAL BAND EAST INTO CANADA AND SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROF EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND WILL SERVE TO FOCUS MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED INTO A
LINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TO JUST WEST OF
THE DELAWARE WATER GAP AND THE LINE WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
AS THE CELLS ARE TRAINING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WAS PRETTY MUCH ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE WITH
THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTORMS 70 TO 80 MILES WIDE.
AS OF 3PM...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED EAST AND
EXTENDED TO INCLUDE OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES.  WEST OF THE BAND
WAS AN AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
LOWER...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TORONTO CANADA SOUTH TO
INDIANA. THERE IS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL WITH CAPE IN THE ORDER OF 3000
J/KG BASED ON OUR 1800 RAOB AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPS OF
340-350 EXTENDING FROM THE MID HUDSON REGION ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AMPLE
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPBL WTR VALUES IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE COVERING
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED ROADS AND PARKING AREAS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. STREAMS
WILL EXPERIENCE SHARP RISES BUT SOME OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK INTO THE
GROUND AND FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
POINT. THE PREFRONTAL TROF WILL RIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE FRONT FOLLOWING TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PICTURE IS VERY UNSETTLED AS A BROAD TROF PRETTY
MUCH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FRONT STALLS JUST WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT.
THIS FAR OUT FEEL THE BEST APPROACH IS TO SIMPLY GO WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY DRY DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)...
GENERALLY MVSR VSBYS AT KGL/KPOU/KALB THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
HZ/BR. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR
IN BR. OTHERWISE VSBY MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN +TSRA UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z AT ALL THREE SITES. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE TSRA. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHRA/+TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FOCUS OF INTEREST WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF 1 TO 3 HOURS RESULTING FROM HEAVY
PRECIP CELLS TRAINING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST INSTABILITY
AXIS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOST
LOCATIONS. GENERALLY RAINFALL WILL BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY AN INCH AND A HALF COULD FALL IN A MATTER OF
AN HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RISES ON
STREAMS THAT HAPPEN TO BE IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA AND PONDING AND
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED PAVED AREAS. MAJOR RIVERS WILL SEE
RISES OF A FOOT OR TWO BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR NYZ063>066 UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY.
VT...NONE.

&&

RCK & GJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-VTZ013-201100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-
EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-
EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-
SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
315 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 509 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 600 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MILES AN HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED UNTIL 600 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALBANY...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...FULTON...
GREENE...HAMILTON...HERKIMER...MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA...
SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE...ULSTER...WARREN...WASHINGTON AND
BENNINGTON.

IN ADDITION TO REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...SPOTTERS ARE
ASKED TO FORWARD RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN 4 HOURS
OR LESS...OR 1 INCH IN A HALF HOUR OR LESS...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF
BANKFULL OR NEAR BANKFULL STREAMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VIA THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET OR BY TELEPHONE
IF YOU DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-VTZ014-015-201100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
315 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE AND
WINDHAM COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 511 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 1000 PM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE POOR DRAINAGE AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA. INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35 MILES AN HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED UNTIL 1000 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE AND WINDHAM.

IN ADDITION TO REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL...SPOTTERS ARE
ASKED TO FORWARD RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN 4 HOURS
OR LESS...OR 1 INCH IN A HALF HOUR OR LESS...AS WELL AS REPORTS OF
BANKFULL OR NEAR BANKFULL STREAMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VIA THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET OR BY TELEPHONE
IF YOU DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ039-082-191845-
SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
204 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN FULTON COUNTY...

AT 203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
EPHRATAH...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF LITTLE FALLS...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EPHRATAH BY 210 PM EDT
CAROGA LAKE PUBLIC CAMPGROUND AND CAROGA LAKE BY 220 PM EDT
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAYFIELD BY 230 PM EDT
CRANBERRY CREEK BY 235 PM EDT
NORTHAMPTON BEACH PUBLIC CAMPGROUND BY 240 PM EDT

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ042-191845-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-
219 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...SMALL HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR JOHNSBURG...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF WARRENSBURG...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CHESTERTOWN BY 230 PM EDT
EAGLE POINT CAMPGROUND BY 235 PM EDT
8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAGUE BY 245 PM EDT

WASULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ038>040-191915-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-MONTGOMERY NY-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
239 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN MONTGOMERY...HERKIMER AND FULTON
COUNTIES...

AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JORDANVILLE...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE FALLS...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ST. JOHNSVILLE BY 300 PM EDT
FORT PLAIN BY 305 PM EDT
7 MILES NORTH OF CANAJOHARIE BY 310 PM EDT
EPHRATAH BY 315 PM EDT

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
247 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ041-191915-
NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
247 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SARATOGA COUNTY...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
EDINBURG...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLOVERSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EDINBURG BY 300 PM EDT
CORINTH BY 315 PM EDT

JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLTON                  43.54N 73.67W
06/19/2006                   WARREN             NY   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            *** 3 INJ *** TREES DOWN ON BIG BURNT ISLAND AND HATCHETT
            ISLAND. MINOR INJURIES REPORTED FROM TREE FALLING ON
            TENT.

&&

RTRACEY/ROKEEFE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

NYZ063-192045-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-
409 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN ULSTER COUNTY...

AT 408 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF
PHOENICIA...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF ROXBURY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OLIVEREA BY 415 PM EDT
HIGHMOUNT...PINE HILL AND BIG INDIAN BY 420 PM EDT
BUSHNELLSVILLE...NORTHWEST OF SHANDAKEN AND NEAR ALLABEN BY 425 PM
EDT.

JPV