Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONVECTION FIRED UP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION IN WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO LINES. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD AND HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL NY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. NAM IS SLOWER WILL FRONT AND IS ALREADY
OFF WITH TIMING. GFS HANDLING FRONTAL POSITION IS BETTER. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A HEAVY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME WITH THE WAVE. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER
TROF DIGS ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY OVER WEEKEND AND MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL CUT OFF BY MONDAY. THE GFS HAS SHOWN BETTER
CONTINUITY THAN THE NAM OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.

WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL ADD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY EXTREME SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE SHOULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH
THERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING IS 1.75 INCHES AROUND 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL AND K-INDEX OF 34...SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH STORMS AS TRAINING IS
LIKELY WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AREAS WHICH RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE AT MORE RISK OF FLOODING PROBLEMS
AS WE HEAD INTO WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
SHOWING CONTINUITY WITH THE LARGE SCALE MEAN FLOW WITH A RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROF IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER THE MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND
DETAILS OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. THIS IS
TYPICAL SO FOLLOWED HPC LEAD FOR DAYS 5-7 WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF MODEL AND THE NCEP MEAN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
NORMAL. NORMALS FOR ALBANY FOR EARLY JUNE...HIGHS MID TO UPPER 70S
AND LOWS LOWER TO MID 50S. FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING AT
KPOU/KALB/KGFL...BUT  THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
AND IFR AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECT ALL THREE SITES.
KPOU IS THE MOST LIKELY TO GET +TSRA WITH STRONG GUSTS AND
HAIL...WHILE KGFL HAS ALREADY HAD THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH AND
THE THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH 22Z. THE
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SOUTH TONIGHT AND PASS KPOU BY
AROUND SUNRISE. BEHIND THIS FRONT THERE WILL BE LIGHT NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A FEW
HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A WAVE
WILL FORM ALONG IT AND PUSH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO
-SHRA/-RA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF A
GENERAL WIDESPREAD RAIN DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT NO FLOODING ON MAINSTEM RIVERS
AND STREAMS. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOOD
PROBLEMS...BUT IT COULD ALSO PRIME SOME AREAS WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING THOSE AREAS TO BE OF MORE
CONCERN WHEN THE WIDESPREAD PCPN MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENT (ESF) AND NOT ISSUE ANY
FLOOD WATCHES.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-021100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL TOUCH OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCT TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...EXCEEDING AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO OUR
HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             TORRINGTON              41.83N 73.13W
06/01/2006  M0.75 INCH       LITCHFIELD         CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO HAD LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN NORTH TORRINGTON

&&

RTRACEY

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