Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...GENERATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BEFORE COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN THURSDAY EVENING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL INVADE
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD LAST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST FOCUS OF CONCERN IS THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY THAT BEGAN ON TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY. THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS FOR THUR AFTN. WITH UNIMPEDED
SUNSHINE EARLY ON AND BASICALLY THE SAME AIR MASS OVER US...HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITHIN
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. HEAT INDICES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD APPROACH 115 THIS
AFTN

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE SEVERE T-STORM AND
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ERN NY/WRN NEW ENG IS IN A PRECIP LULL EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AN MCS PASSING THRU NCENTRL NEW ENG AND MORE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL START TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THRU SE CANADA TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTN...AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THIS
AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW ROGUE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE LADEN ATMOS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SHALLOW CAP AROUND 700 MB...BUT MAY NOT HOLD EVERYWHERE. SO WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...WITH CHANCE FURTHER
NORTH...AND LIKELY IN NRN HERKIMER/HAMILTON. ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE. SBCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON...WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OF 30-35 KTS IN 0-6 KM LAYER. STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO
BOWS OR CLUSTERS.

THE LAST THREAT TO MENTION FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IF AN MCS CAN ORGANIZE. THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA WILL BE THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...SO A WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FLOW FOR ANY MCS TO PROPAGATE...BUT TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS
OVER THE SAME AREA WITHIN THE MCS IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD BE CAUSE FOR
CONCERN. PWAT VALUES WERE AROUND 2 INCHES FROM THE 00Z ALB
SOUNDING...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL NOT GET DRIER TODAY. WILL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN STORMS THRU TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ON THUR...THE MAIN THRUST OF
DYNAMICS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE POPS WILL BE HELD IN
CHANCE RANGE BUT WILL GO ABOVE GFS/MET GUIDANCE WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLICING THRU THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL STILL LINGER...MAINLY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES. BY THUR EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES AND STABILIZATION OCCURS.

FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AND COOLER...ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. GFS HAS DRY CONDS WITH THE SFC
FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WRF DIFFERS...AND STALLS THE FRONT JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND MOVES A WAVE ALONG UP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WET SOLN
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL TREND TOWARDS WARMER GFS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE PAST FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY MAKE A BRIEF RUN AT US LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY USHERS IN A PATTERN CHANGE TO
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY/...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL APPLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG THE ROUTE
FROM GLENS FALLS TO POUGHKEEPSIE. HOWEVER...PILOTS SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  SURFACE WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT
ACROSS THE BULK OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT LATE
TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM
45 TO 55 PERCENT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE BALANCE OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE WESTERLY
TODAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BLOW AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR TODAY AND
10 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 MILES AN HOUR OR LESS THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIVERS IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE
WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN WATER
LEVELS ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SHARP RISES ON SMALL STREAMS IN LOCATIONS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK RIVER AND IN WEST CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
THURSDAY...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH.
RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR CTZ001-013 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR CTZ001-013 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM
     THURSDAY.
MA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MAZ001-025 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYZ032-033-058-063 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-
     082>084 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NYZ059-060-064>066 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7
     PM THURSDAY.
VT...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR VTZ013-015 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VTZ014 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HEMMERICH
FIRE WEATHER...HEMMERICH
HYDROLOGY...HEMMERICH

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