Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS81 KALY 191528
RFWALY

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1128 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-200000-
/O.CON.KALY.FW.W.0001.060419T1600Z-060420T0000Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1128 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FIVE DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 

AS OF MIDDAY...SURFACE WINDS...BLOWING FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION... WERE
ALREADY GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH IN MANY LOCALITIES WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 35 TO 40 PERCENT. AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST EVEN STRONGER...TO
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SAME
TIME...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY
FUELS...WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY SORT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND FORECASTS.


$$

000 
WWUS81 KALY 192357 AAA
RFWALY

RED FLAG WARNING...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 PM EDT WED APR 19 2006


CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-200100-
/O.EXP.KALY.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060420T0000Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
757 PM EDT WED APR 19 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH
LOCAL GUSTS OVER 20 MPH IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.
THE WINDS OVER ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 75
PERCENT BY SUNRISE. SO...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE RAPIDLY MOVED WESTWARD INTO OUR
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WRAPPING AROUND A PESKY UPR LVL LOW
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE SHORTLY
TO MENTION A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE CAP REGION NORTHWARD. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. WITH THE
LOWER TROP BONE DRY...MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
SO WILL OPT FOR THE SPRINKLES WORDING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE WINDS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 425 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006/

SYNOPSIS...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT
ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER OUR REGION AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL COOL US DOWN A LITTLE ON
FRIDAY BUT WE WILL LIKELY SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY...BEFORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE BIG WEATHER ISSUE ONCE
AGAIN CONCERNS FIRE WEATHER. 10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE OFF WFAS
INDICATES OUR AREA MOSTLY AT 9%. DRY...BUT NOT BONE DRY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING
WED AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. SINCE IT
APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS HAVE NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN
MORE THAN 5 DAYS...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WE
COORDINATED WITH THE CT AND VT. WE WERE NOT ABLE TO REACH NY OR MA
CONTACT POINTS YET...BUT WILL DO SO SOON.

SAT PIX SHOWS CLOUDS...FROM THE STORM PARKED WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST...TRYING TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT OUR LEAST OUR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING. WENT PARTLY CLOUDY THERE...AND MOSTLY
CLEAR FURTHER WEST.

EXPECT ALL CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK EAST ON WEDNESDAY SO WE SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH THE CRITICAL FIRE ELEMENTS BUT AN
OTHERWISE NOT BAD DAY...AS LONG AS YOU DONT MIND THE BREEZE.

THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN BETTER SINCE THE WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
AND IT LOOKS SUNNY AGAIN WITH TEMPS A TOUCH HIGHER.

WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE...EXPECT A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COLD
SPOTS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER ALL
GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY (ESP FWC) SINCE IF ANYTHING...THE AIR MASS
SHOULD WARM EVEN MORE WITH LOTS MORE INSULAR RADIATION AND EVEN MORE
DYING.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MIGHT DROP
OUR TEMPS A LITTLE...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ALL GOOD THINGS MUST
COME TO AN END...AND SO WILL THIS SPELL OF MOSTLY FINE SPRING
WEATHER...JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED COMPUTER MODELS
PORTENT THAT OUR OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE REPLACE BY A REX BLOCK
LOW. ACTUALLY...A SERIES OF CUT OFF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND THEN CUT-OFF AS THEY APPROACH OUR REGION. THE FIRST OF
THESE ARE FORECAST TO HAPPEN ON SATURDAY...THE SECOND LATE
SUNDAY...AND THE THIRD (MAYBE FINAL ONE) EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WOULD
BE USELESS TO TRY TO FINE TUNED THE TIMING SO CHANCE OF INCLEMENT
WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SAYS IT ALL. ALSO...THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO COOL DOWN QUITE A BIT...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT LEAST THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH TIME.

AVIATION...JUST A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT IN
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS BACKING INTO GFL...ALB AND POU FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW OFF CANADA.  BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN050 POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE AT GFL AND ALB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN GET...BUT STILL VFR.  ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS EXPECTED TOMORROW ALL AREAS AS BETTER DEEP DRYING GRADUALLY
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

FIRE WEATHER...OUR OFFICE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR
ENTIRE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REASONING WAS THAT NNW WINDS
WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 25-30 MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. LOOKS
LIKE NOT ENOUGH RAIN HAS FALLEN (BELOW 0.25 INCHES) OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA AND 10-HR DRY FUELS WERE LESS THAN 10% MOIST. PRETTY GOOD
RECOVERY EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RH
VALUES NEARING 100 PERCENT. HOWEVER...ONLY SHELTERED AREAS MIGHT
EXPERIENCE DEW AS A SOME BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
DAY WITH RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS TOMORROW.

HYDROLOGY...WATERWAYS THROUGHOUT EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
WEEKEND...SO FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
NO FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CTZ001-013 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MAZ001-025 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-
     063>066-082>084 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR VTZ013>015 FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-192115-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
502 PM EDT TUE APR 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM NOON
TO SIX PM ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO OUR FIRE WATCH STATEMENT
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.