Frost Advisory 2, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
329 PM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WILL BE BUILDING EAST
OVERNIGHT. BATCH OF CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SIGNALING THE
ONSET OF SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. BATCH OF CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO
DRY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SKIRT THROUGH
THE ADIRONDACKS AND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY.  UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD
MORNING...WILL REULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 40 IN
WARMER SPOTS AND MID TO UPPER 30S IN COLDER SPOTS...UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. ISSUING A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A
LITTLE BIT OF FLAT NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN...SO
TEMPERATURES GETTING A LITTLE BIT ABOVE NORMAL...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS CAN BUILD IN FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
STAYS SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME OF THE FRONTOGENESIS AND MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE PARAMETERS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST. SO...WITH SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...AND WEAKNESS OF MODEL HANDLING OF OFFSHORE OCEAN
STORMS...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY ON EAST...BUT
GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER AND ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF INCONSISTENCIES IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. UPPER CUT
OFF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
NEW UPPER CUT OFF SLOWLY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND
WITH THE POTENTIAL DEEP SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
REGION...AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER DYNAMICS...SOME HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WOULD LIKE TO SEE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE
LATCHING ONTO THIS SCENARIO. MJO BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
ACTIVE...EMERGING INTO PHASE 7...AND EVETUALLY WILL TREND TO PHASE
8 BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SUPPORTING GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN U.S. ACKNOWLEDGING RAIN CHANCES IN EXTENDED...BUT SLIGHT
SHIFT SOUTH IN TRACK OF UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES...WOULD CONFINE
MOST CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE LAST WEEK INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER SRN QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER FAIR AND DRY THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. SOME CIRRUS WILL PERSIST IN THE SCT-BKN VARIETY FROM
KALB SOUTH THROUGH 12Z MON. THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5-6
KTS UNTIL SUNSET...WHEN THEY WILL BECOME CALM. S/SE WINDS OF 4-8 KTS
WILL BEGIN AROUND 15Z ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND MUCH MORE
GREENING OF VEGETATION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST FOR MUCH THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA /HSA/ UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE SRN
REACHES OF THE HSA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT 500 MB CUTOFF LOW PROJECTED TO BE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION THU...WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THU
INTO FRI.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ041-043-083-084 FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM
     MONDAY.
VT...NONE.
&&

NAS/WASULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-081100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
349 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.