Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER NRN VA...AHD OF COLD
FRONT NOW SAGGING S. GIVEN SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT...LIKELY SOME
OF THESE WILL EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS...HENCE SEVERE POTENTIAL. SPC
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 02 UTC TO REFLECT THIS.

FRONT TO DROP THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH
PERHAPS JUST THE SW COUNTIES IN THE WARM SECTOR. TOMORROW...FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHERN AND SW COUNTIES...AS AMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STABLE
TO THE NE...GIVEN INFLUX OF MARINE AIR. BEST CHANCE OF A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AND MON...WITH FRONT DRAPED
MAINLY S AND SW OF CWA...AND SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION.
SHOULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING...AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED THUNDER N OF
THE FRONT. MON LOOKS TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN PAST DAYS...WITH
CLOUD COVER...RAINFALL...AND NE WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER...MARINE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT TO PUSH FARTHER S MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH SFC RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA WED AND THU. WARM SUN SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS. FRI AND SAT...PERHAPS
MORE UNSETTLED...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS E...ALLOWING FOR MORE HUMID
AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GNRLY VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD. XPCT GUSTY WNDS TO DMNSH BY
00Z. THUNDER THREAT TO LOW TO ADD TO TAFA ATTM...BUT WILL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR ANY TSRA IVOF AIRFIELDS.
&&

.MARINE...
W WNDS AVG 15-20 KTS FOR NXT SVRL HRS...SO WILL CONT
SCA FOR CHES BAY THRU 00Z. NO FLAGS AFTR THAT UNTIL ARND 12Z
MON WHEN WINDS SHIFT INTO NE AND SEAS INCRS BEHIND BKDR COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARD COOLER...AND MOISTER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT DROPS MAINLY S OF THE AREA...AND WE GET
INTO NE FLOW AND MORE OF A MARINE AMS. SOME HOPE SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN...WHICH SHOULD HELP CONDITIO

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...44
MARINE...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
541 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-160945-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
541 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FIRST OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT REGION...
AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS EASTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN UNDER
THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-670-160945-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC FROM
20 TO 40 NM-
541 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE MID ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AND WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS EASTER AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. AGAIN...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HURLEY

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