Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
313 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE W WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OVER WV AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG VV. ALSO
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT COMING THROUGH WITH THIS LINE. SOME
HEATING IS NOW TAKING PLACE WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE INITIAL
CONVECTION. HOWEVER INITIAL CONVECTION HAS PUSHED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE S AND THIS IS NOT RETURNING VERY QUICKLY. ALSO
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF VA. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER IS HOW MUCH CAPE
THIS CAN GENERATE. THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS GOOD FOR BOW OR
SUPERCELLS WITH THE CONVECTION. WILL GO LIKELY WITH THE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND
STAY THAT WAY UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON TUE WHEN COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
TRIGGER CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN COLD POOL MOVES BY TO THE N. WILL COOL OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT
INTO THE 40S AND EVEN WITH DOWNSLOPE AND SUNHINE WILL ONLY GET
BACK TO LOW 60S ON TUESDAY AND MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM UP BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT COMING IN FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TNGT THRU ERLY TUE AFTN. HOWEVER...ISLTD
MVFR/IFR LATE THIS AFTN OR ERLY THIS EVENG DUE TO SCTD TSRAS WITH
COLD FRNT. OTHRWISE...WNDS INCRS FM WNW FM ERLY TUE MORNG THRU TUE
AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
CA CONDS TNGT THRU TUE ALL WATERS FOR WNDS ESPLY AS COOL AIR ADVCTN
AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658 FROM
     MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...BILLET
LONG TERM...BILLET
AVIATION...CURRY
MARINE...GINGRICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

ANZ650-MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080-040815-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT
20 NM-DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-
MARYLAND BEACHES-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-
GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-
POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-
410 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

ANZ630>633-652-654-656-658-670-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ072>078-
081>100-040815-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC FROM
20 TO 40 NM-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
410 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

25

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

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