Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND BREEZY WINDS. HOWEVER...TROF AXIS FROM NW...WHICH
HAD A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BACK IN THE MIDWEST...IS CURRENTLY SETTLING
OVER OUR REGION. INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BROAD LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING FROM W TO
E JUST N OF VA. SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH FOR OUR MARYLAND COUNTIES SINCE
TRAILING EDGE OF LINE COULD REACH DOWN INTO THIS AREA. BELIEVE MOST OF
THIS IS SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED BY AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS TO OUR S AND E. WHEN TROF AXIS IS
FULLY SETTLED OVER OUR SE CWA BELIEVE THIS INTERACTION WILL KICK OFF
A BETTERE CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY AS AXIS DISSIPATES OVER US EXPECT LOWER TEMPS (IN THE UPPER
80S)...BUT HIGHER DW PTS SO WE WONT FEEL ANY RELIEF FROM HEAT. SL
CHC TO LOW CHC OF POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. WRF AND GFS KEYING ON
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC FOR -TSRA IN SOUTH. RIDGE FROM PLAINS BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORN. THIS WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DW PTS TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. MEXMOS ALREADY REPORTING MAX TEMPS OF
99/100 FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ALL TAF SITES ATTM. OUTSIDE OF CNVTV ACTIVITY...XPC VFR CONDS TO
PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. COULD BE SOME MVFR IN HZ TOMORROW...AS WELL
AS IFR IN FOG AT KSBY TNGT. WINDS XPCD TO BE WEAKER TNGT ON
DELMARVA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DVLP TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ATTMS...ALTHO WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS NEXT 12-18 HOURS
ON THE BAY. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER TNGT...WITH NO FLAGS XPCD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SHOULD IN GENERAL BE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS FROM A
WIND PERSPECTIVE THROUGH SUNDAY. HWVR...MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE
ALERT FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...33
AVIATION/MARINE...SAMMLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656-658-
MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-281030-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO NC-VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC-VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT OUT 20 NM-
ACCOMACK VA-AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CAMDEN NC-CAROLINE VA-
CHARLES CITY VA-CHESAPEAKE VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-CHOWAN NC-
CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-DORCHESTER MD-EASTERN CURRITUCK NC-
ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GATES NC-GLOUCESTER VA-GOOCHLAND VA-
GREENSVILLE VA-HANOVER VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-INLAND WORCESTER MD-
ISLE OF WIGHT VA-JAMES CITY VA-KING AND QUEEN VA-KING WILLIAM VA-
LANCASTER VA-LOUISA VA-LUNENBURG VA-MARYLAND BEACHES MD-MATHEWS VA-
MECKLENBURG VA-MIDDLESEX VA-NEW KENT VA-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON VA-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-NORTHAMPTON VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
NORTHUMBERLAND VA-NOTTOWAY VA-PASQUOTANK NC-PERQUIMANS NC-
POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-RICHMOND VA-
SOMERSET MD-SOUTHAMPTON VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
VIRGINIA BEACH VA-WESTERN CURRITUCK NC-WESTMORELAND VA-WICOMICO MD-
YORK VA-
624 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE EASTERN MARYLAND SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 99 AND 104 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN...ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FORECASTER ID
25

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

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