Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 AM EDT SAT OCT 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

ENHANCED WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE BRING
TRANSPORTED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
CENTRAL NC. NUMEROUS VORT MAXS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT.

MENTIONED HVY RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP OVER SE SECTION OF
THE CWA WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. CONVERGENCE ZONE
WHICH WAS OVER PORTIONS OF SUFFOLK...ISLE OF WIGHT...AND SOUTHAMPTON
OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSED.
CONVERGENCE ZONE NOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NC FROM BERTIE
NORTHWARD TO NORTHAMPTON AND INTO SOUTHERN GREENSVILLE/BRUNSWICK
VA. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE BAND. DECENT FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MAKE FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALSO MENTION TSRA INTO THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVE.

WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 14Z AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITERIA OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL ZONES WITH SOME GUSTS
EXCEEDING 45 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE/OVRNT.
COULD STILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR
MOUTH OF THE BAY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DUE TO STRONG DIFF IN AIR/WATER TEMP AND
DECENT SHEER...SOME STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO SPAWN WATERSPOUTS.

RIVERS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ON TOP OF RECENT RAINFALL THAT
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON THE LOWER
JAMES AND APPOMATTOX RIVER BASINS. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECASTED FOR
SOME FORECAST POINTS WITH RIVER LVLS CRESTING MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT/TMRW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MON AND OUT TO SEA
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS HI WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WED...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION WED NIGHT. ASSOCIATATED COLD FRONT WILL EFFECT THE REGION
LATE WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST SITES IFR OVERNIGHT AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CEILINGS START TO LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MFVR.

&&

.MARINE...
TIDES GENERALLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. TIME OF NEXT HIGH
TIDE FOR MOST OF AREA IS ABOUT 8 TO 9 AM. THIS IS THE HIGHER OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FOR TODAY...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE WORST TIDE
CYCLE FOR FLOODING...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THRU THE DAY. MAY
STILL HAVE SOME MINOR FLOODING SAT NIGHT WITH NEXT HIGH TIDE. WORST
AREA FOR TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS TO BE HAMPTON ROADS...WHERE THE LAST
HIGH TIDE WAS 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

HAVE KEPT TIMING THE SAME FOR GALE WARNINGS WHICH WILL EXPIRE THIS
MORNING. STRONG SMALL CRAFT IN PLACE AFTER GALE WARNINGS AS
WINDS/SEAS ARE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED IN TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ021>025 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MDZ025 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ024-025 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NCZ102 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NCZ102 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM
     SUNDAY.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ077-078-084>086-091-094-095-098>100 UNTIL
     10 AM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR VAZ098>100 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ099-100 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656 UNTIL NOON
     SATURDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM
     SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ631 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM
     SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ632-650-652-654-656 FROM NOON
     SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ658 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...WAMSLEY
AVIATION/MARINE...SIEBERS

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