Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
920 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ZFP/CWF/GRIDS UPDATED TO ALLOW SVR TSTRM WATCH TO EXPIRE...HOWEVER
CELLS MOVG E ACROSS SRN TIER CNTYS IVOF EMP STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. OTW...HVY RAIN CONTS TO BE MAIN THREAT
WITH FLOOD WATCH CONTG INTO THU AM. XPCT STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT INTO SERN AREAS NXT FEW HRS AS THAT AIRMASS REMAIN UNTAPPED
FROM TDYS HEAT/HUMIDITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 303 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006)

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING ITS DESCENT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY REMAIN
DIAGONALLY ACROSS NW VA EXTENDING FROM THE SW TO NE...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING FROM NW TO SE...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER WX WATCH WATCH OUT OF THE NW HALF
OF OUR CWA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THESE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALLOWED US THE NEEDED SFC HEATING. THIS WATCH MAY BE
EXTENDED FURTHER SE LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THERE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT
HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN. LAST NIGHT AND EVEN THIS MORNING MANY AREAS IN OUR CWA
RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES AND POSSIBLY MORE LOCALLY. WE ARE EXPECTED 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND FACTORING HOW
MUCH THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND WE WILL OF COURSE
CONTINUE IT UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION OF 7AM THURSDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES NEARER THE COAST.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
RATHER THAN SCATTERED. DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL BE SO PREVALENT SINCE
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS SORT OF
INSTABILITY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS WILL ALL HAVE ENDED WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SE PTN OF CWA WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS JUST
MOVING OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON. AT THE MOMENT THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PRECIP FREE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING FURTHER TO THE WEST AND ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA IN LATER RUNS.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS (BRIEF IFR PSBL IN HEAVIER PSPN)
OVRNGT AS SHWRS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED AS PCPN MOVES OUT DURING THE FORENOON HOURS THU.

MARINE...
MODERATE SW FLOW WILL CONT OVER WATERS OVRNGT. COLD FRONT PRESSING
SE ACRS WATERS LATE TNGT THRU THU MORN. LTST WRF GUIDANCE SUGGS
MARGINAL POST FRONTAL SCA CONDS LIKELY ESP WHERE CRITERIA IS LOWER
IN BAY/SOUND. WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR CSTL WTRS FOR NOW BUT MAY SEE
SCA CONDS (AT LEAST FOR FOR SEAS) IN 3RD FCST PERIOD WHICH IS BEYOND
LOCAL HEADLINE ISSUANCE POLICY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ021>025 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 UNTIL 9 AM
     THURSDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ048-049-060>100 UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9
     PM THURSDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM
     THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
857 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

VAZ068-070-071-079>083-087>089-092-060200-
AMELIA VA-BRUNSWICK VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD VA-DINWIDDIE
VA-GREENSVILLE VA-HENRICO VA-NEW KENT VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-SOUTHAMPTON
VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
857 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND MOVING THROUGH I95
CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RICHMOND...

AT 855 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF MANNBORO TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EMPORIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EMPORIA AROUND 905 PM EDT...
  PURDY AROUND 910 PM EDT...
  DINWIDDIE AROUND 920 PM EDT...
  COURTLAND AROUND 930 PM EDT...
  PETERSBURG AROUND 1000 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN TREES DUE TO
THE WET GROUND.

CULLEN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
959 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

NCZ012-VAZ079-080-087-088-060230-
BRUNSWICK VA-DINWIDDIE VA-GREENSVILLE VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-SUSSEX VA-
959 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

AT 959 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAWRENCEVILLE TO 23
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEVILLE...OR FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAWRENCEVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PURDY AROUND 1020 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

44

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1210 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BUFFALO JUNCTION        36.60N 78.63W
07/06/2006                   MECKLENBURG        VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 1/2 FOOT OF WATER COVERING HENRICO RD - RTE 727

1205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SOUTH HILL              36.73N 78.13W
07/06/2006                   MECKLENBURG        VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROCKY BRANCH RD - RTE 642- FLOODED OUT

&&

25