Alert archive / Virginia / Coastal Flood Statements in 2006

Coastal Flood Statement 9, NWS Wakefield, VA

August 31, 20068 counties in Virginia; Currituck County, North Carolina; Dorchester County, Somerset County, Worcester County, Maryland

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this coastal flood statement at Aug 31, 2006, 6:06 PM EDT for 8 counties in Virginia; Currituck County, North Carolina; Dorchester County, Somerset County, Worcester County, Maryland. It took effect at Aug 31, 2006, 10:48 PM EDT. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 31, 2006, 6:06 PM EDT (22:06 UTC)
In effect from: Aug 31, 2006, 10:48 PM EDT
Expired: Sep 1, 2006, 4:43 PM EDT
In force: 18 hr
Issued by: NWS Wakefield, VA

Counties Dorchester County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Currituck County, NC, Accomack County, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 4 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 484 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 99 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Aug 31, 4:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 4:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
416 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM...ERNESTO AND ITS REMANANTS DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATL AS OF 4 PM SHOWS THAT TS ERNESTO
HAS STRENGTHENED QUITE A BIT...MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70
MPH. LATEST TPC/NHC TRACK HAS LANDFALL NEAR NC/SC BORDER BETWN 8PM
AND MIDNGT...WITH THE STORM TRACKING UP THRU NC OVERNGT INTO FRI
MRNG. WRF MODEL HAS BEEN DISREGARDED THIS CYCLE AS IT IS THE
EXTREME OUTLIER/DISSIPATES ANY EVIDENCE OF ERNESTO BY FRI NGT.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS (ALTHOUGH W/ TPC TRACK WHICH IS A BIT
TO THE WEST OF GFS). LOW LVL CONV INCREASES OVERNGT FROM S TO N
AND LATEST MSAS SHOWS MSLP VALUES DECRSG IN RESPONSE TO ERNESTOS
APPROACH. FOR TONIGHT...THINK SFC HIGH ACRS NY STATE/NEW ENGLAND
WILL LIMIT QPF SOMEWHAT ACRS FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENG...AND HAVE
THEREFORE BACKED OFF OF HVY RAIN WORDING UNTIL AFTER MIDNGT UP
THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
STORM STRUCTURE ACRS NC AND SE VA ON RADAR...AND HAVE THUNDER
MENTION AND HVY RAIN ALL NIGHT ACRS SRN ZONES. WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISO SVR ACRS SRN
ZONES MAINLY E OF I-95 AND S OF I-64. IN ANY EVENT ALL AREAS WILL
SEE HVY RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE.

FRI...IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF ERNESTO...AHVE HOISTED A
WIND ADVSRY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 31 MPH OR GREATER ACRS HAMPTON
ROADS/NE NC. FLASH FLOOD WATCH (FFA) CONTINUES ALL AREAS...FOR
GNRLY 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NOW THRU FRI NGT...GFS DEPICTS PRC WTRS
AROUND 2.5 INCHES. BESIDES WIND AND HVY RAIN WILL HAVE THREAT FOR
ISO TORNADOES E OF THE TRACK OF ERNESTO ACRS RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT...WITH
BEST CHC BEING SE ZONES. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPRCH
40KTS...AND IF ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER (NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT) OCCUR CONDS MAY BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE. SLOWED DOWN THE
END OF PRECIP A BIT SO HAVE CAT POPS THRU 6PM ALL ZONES. FOR TEMPS
WENT COOLEST ACRS NW BUT STILL ABOVE MAV/MET GDNC AS THAT ASSUMES
A FARTHER EAST TRACK AND THUS MORE NLY FLOW.

FRI NGT...CONTINUE W/ FFA SRN/CNTRL ZONES NRN ZONES THRU 8PM...AND
NRN ZONES THRU 2AM SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO BEGIN TO
SCATTER PRECIP OUT FROM RICHMOND AND SOUTH DURING
EVENG...LINGERING LIKELY POPS FARTHER NORTH.

SAT...SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF AKQ CWA BY SAT MRNG SO EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE DRYING...FOLLOWED WARMER AND DRIER MAV GDNC HERE
ALTHOUGH WITH UNCRETAINTY AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES HAVE LEFT
IN 30% FOR AFTN TSTMS.

.LONG TERM/SAT NGT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL IN WAKE OF ERNESTO
HAVE A SLOW MOVING UPR LOW ACRS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY TRACKING TWDS
THE EAST BY MON/TUE. HAVE CARRIED 30% POPS FOR AFTN/EVENG SUN/MON.
CONSENSUS FCST SHOWS FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR THE REGION TUE/ERLY WED SO
HAVE POPS A BIT HIGHER THEN. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE WED
INTO THU WITH DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER WX THEN.

.MARINE..
GALE WRNGS UP FOR ALL ZONES STARTING THIS THRU FRI EVE. SEAS
BLDG TO BTWN 10-15FT...HIGHEST NRN CSTL WTRS. PROLONGED PRD
OF ERLY WNDS RESULTS IN MINOR CSTL FLOODING ALONG WITH HIGH SURF
POTENTIAL ALONG MD/VA ERN SHORE AREAS. MINOR CSTL FLOODING PSBL
ALONG DORCHESTER / SOMERSET CNTY MD AREAS OF CHES BAY.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ALL SITES...OCCASIONAL IFR LEVELS AT ECG. IFR/MVFR VSBYS
IN RAIN BANDS. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE ENE AS ERNESTO APPROACHES
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE AT ORF/PHF/ECG AFTER 12Z. .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ021>025 UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MDZ025 FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 6 AM
SATURDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.
...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4
PM FRIDAY.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ048-049-062>064-072>078-085-099 UNTIL
2 AM SATURDAY.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ060-061-065>071-079>084-086>098-100
UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.
...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ092>098 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR VAZ099-100 FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 6 AM
SATURDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630-631 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630-631 UNTIL 5 AM FRIDAY.
...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ632 FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ633 FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY.
...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO
8 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KIMBALL
MARINE...44

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 31, 6:53 AM EDT	Coastal Flood Statement	AKQ	Accomack, Northampton, City of Virginia Beach	11 hr
Aug 31, 3:36 PM EDT	High Surf Advisory	AKQ	Accomack, Northampton, City of Virginia Beach	50 hr
Aug 31, 4:29 PM EDT	Wind Advisory	AKQ	Accomack, Charles City, Gloucester, Greensville, James City, Lancaster and 18 more	32 hr

Nearby

Coastal Flood Statements in Virginia, 2006 Coastal Flood Statements in Maryland, 2006 Coastal Flood Statements in North Carolina, 2006 Every coastal flood statement in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.