Storm Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 031255
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-040400-
355 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR CAPE NAVARIN IN RUSSIA WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB BY 3 AM MONDAY.


$$

PKZ200-040400-
NORTON SOUND-
355 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-040400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
355 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...SE WINDS 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. FROM SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND EAST...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-040400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
355 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT BECOMING E. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-040400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
355 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

.TODAY...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

RF/DA DEC 06

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AST SAT DEC 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AT
SURFACE AND 500 MB. AT 18Z MODELS WERE ALL AT LEAST 4 MB TOO WEAK
ON THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE YUKON...AND ALSO 6 MB TOO WEAK ON THE
BERING LOW. WE WILL ADD 3-5 KT TO EAST WINDS THROUGH SAT PM IN THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER GRADIENT.

THE NAM MODEL BRINGS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP THAN THE GFS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE GFS SEEMS MUCH
MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT AT THAT TIME
AND THAT THE INFLOW OF MOISTURE IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE SO IT WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SUN AND OVER THE YUKON MON. THIS WILL KEEP THE INTERIOR
DRY THROUGH SUN. STRONG INVERSIONS UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN IN VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR THAT REMAIN WIND FREE.

A WARM FRONT FROM POINT LAY TO BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE TO BARROW
TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3AM SUN AND THEN DISSIPATE IN PLACE. AREAS OF
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES
BY SUN AM. SOUTHWEST WINDS 25G35KT ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND TURN S-SE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

A 1043 THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE YUKON WITH A SURFACE RIDGE TO
NOATAK WILL RECEDE EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER SUN PM. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST AND INCREASE THE
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUN PM. WILL SEE A STRONG
TANANA VALLEY JET AND EAST WINDS OVER INTERIOR UPLANDS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

A 960 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO RUSSIA
TONIGHT. ITS NOW WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO GAMBELL TO
THE YUKON DELTA BY 3PM SUN AND TO BARROW TO DENALI BY 3PM SUN.
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT SUN TO MON.
A LOW NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL FEED MOISTURE NORTH INTO THIS
FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON GIVING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR MON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 06