Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM ADT THU SEP 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES.
WILL ALIGN WITH GFS BECAUSE THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE NAM. THE UKMET AND THE GFS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY SIMILAR.

THE MAIN BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED IN STRENGTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE IT DRIFTS EVER
SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY.
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE STALLED OUT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM CANADA EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM ADVANCING VERY FAR EASTWARD
FROM THE WEST COAST. THE RAIN WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY HAZARDS OF CONSEQUENCE.

THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT BACK EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AND SLIDE
MAINLAND ALASKA BACK INTO A MISH MASH TROUGH WITH VERY UPPER LEVEL
MOVEMENT BEFORE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE
BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC SET UP TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THIS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC HAS A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT REACHES
SOUTHWARD AND LIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM ABOUT JUST EAST OF
BARROW AND THEN WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

CF SEP 06