Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 121117
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 AM ADT WED JUL 12 2006

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130230-
317 AM ADT WED JUL 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA TODAY. A 999 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE SOUTH THU...STRENGTHENING
INTO A 993 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE BERING STRAIT FRI
INTO SAT.

$$

PKZ200-130230-
NORTON SOUND-
317 AM ADT WED JUL 12 2006

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
317 AM ADT WED JUL 12 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-130230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
317 AM ADT WED JUL 12 2006

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-130230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
317 AM ADT WED JUL 12 2006

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

JD/KS JUL 06

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM ADT TUE JUL 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TILL ABOUT 12Z
THURSDAY. AT THAT TIME THE NAM TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
SELAWIK VALLEY AND MOVES IT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST
PERSISTENT ALONG WITH THE UKMET. THE NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS ON EVERY RUN. SO...ALTHOUGH THE PLACEMENT AND THE
TIMING OF THE VARIABLES SEEM BETTER WITH THE GFS...BELIEVE THAT
THE GFS IS TO SHY ON THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR BY EITHER OF THE MODELS.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TREKKING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER
SHOT OF ENERGY FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING DOWN OVER THE WEST
COAST. SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE IN BEHIND ALONG
THE WEST COAST THAT WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS THE NEXT LOW DROPS OUT OF FAR EAST RUSSIA ON FRIDAY. THIS
REINIALIZES THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEST COAST AND PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 210 WEDNESDAY.
&&

CF JUL 06