High Surf Advisory 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM ADT THU OCT 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...SIBERIAN UPPER VORTEX MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PEEL OFF
FROM THIS VORTEX THEN ROTATE INTO FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND INTO THE
BERING SEA. THE END RESULT...A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA WITH MORE UPPER RIDGING EVOLVING OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH UPPER AIR DATA AND
HEIGHT FIELDS ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM LOOK SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...WESTERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS WILL TREND
DOWNWARD TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LOW GRAZES THE COAST AND EXITS
THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN TAKES CONTROL WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
TRANSITORY RIDGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE...VARYING BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FOG TO BE A MINIMAL THREAT
WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
COASTAL AREA.

WEST COAST...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WEAKEST ONE...WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH COMING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS ONE HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM
POINT HOPE SOUTH TO NUNAKTUK ISLAND AS STRONG (35KT-55KT) SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IMPINGE ON THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME.
WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS NEWER DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

EASTERN INTERIOR...BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NOT
MUCH HOPE FOR ANY SNOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY A WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE...THUS WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A MINOR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THEN
HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE INTERIOR. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MONDAY EVENING BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
EVOLVE OVER THE BERING SEA SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTH INTO FAR EASTERN
RUSSIA ON MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING EAST
OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ITS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS ON SPECIFICS...BUT THIS
WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

KS/MR OCT 06