Gale Warning 98, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 PM AST WED DEC 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU AND DISSIPATE
EARLY FRI AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW LIES FROM BRISTOL
BAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO A BETHEL TO
ANCHORAGE LINE WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT FROM MCGRATH TO EAGLE BY 3AM THU.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ALOFT TO ANVIK TO OLD CROW BY 3PM THU...
TO THE YUKON DELTA TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3AM FRI...AND DISSIPATE
ALONG A YUKON DELTA TO BARROW LINE BY 3PM FRI. EXPECT 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE INTERIOR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COASTS AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. NO SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE CHINOOK SHADOW ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY. WILL SEE MODERATE
CHINOOK WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. EAST WINDS 25-35KT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN EXPOSED AREAS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUCH AS
DELTA AND THE TANANA-YUKON UPLANDS CAUSING BLOWING SNOW. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

N WINDS 25-35 KT OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND THU. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...BUT ONLY ZONE 214 IS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1/4 MILE SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE ONLY TONIGHT.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THE SECOND LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN
YUKON BY 3AM FRI AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRI. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW WITH THIS AND SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS VERIFIED ABOUT 5 MB TOO WEAK ON THE LOW NEAR COLD BAY AT
18Z AND ABOUT 5 KT TOO WEAK ON WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE
BERING STRAIT SOUTH. WE WILL BUMP WINDS UP ABOUT 5 KT ALONG THE
WEST COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT.

THE SECOND LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA FRI HAS HAD
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THIS.
GFS HAS HAD BEST CONSISTENCY SO WE ARE GOING WITH THIS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.
&&

JB DEC 06