Gale Warning 95, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AST FRI DEC 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ENERGETIC PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AS DEEP STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA.

MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD CLOSED LOW OVER CHUKOTKA/NW
BERING SEA AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. ALL THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES.

MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TRACK/REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
DEEP LOW PRESENTLY JUST SE OF DUTCH HARBOR. GFS CONSISTENTLY
TAKING THIS FEATURE FROM BRISTOL BAY SAT AFTERNOON INTO NORTON
SOUND BY SUN AFTERNOON. NAM CONSISTENTLY MOVING THIS FEATURE
SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST THAN GFS...WITH LOW NE OF BETHEL BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A DIFFICULT CALL...WITH THE MORE WESTERN TRACK
OF GFS FAVORED BY CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE NAM
QUITE LIKELY GIVEN THE MATURE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. WE LEAN
TOWARD A SLOWER VERSION OF THE GFS.

IN THE MID RANGE...BOTH GFS AND ECMF SHOWING STRONG LOW MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE REMAINS
REDEVELOPING OVER EASTERN INTERIOR OR WESTERN YUKON DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THIS WOULD SERVE TO END THE CHINOOK FLOW AND MAYBE EVEN
BRING SNOW TO THE INTERIOR...THOUGH HOW MUCH AND WHERE WILL DEPEND
ON THE SPECIFIC TRACK. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING COLDER AIR
INTO WESTERN ZONES FOR NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BY DECEMBER STANDARDS
OVER THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WILL HAVE LESS CHANCE DUE TO CROSS RANGE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS COLD LOW DEVELOPS
OVER CHUKOTKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL GUSTS TO
40 MPH WEST SW OF ICY CAPE.

FOR THE WEST COAST...IF THE DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW DOES INDEED
TRACK INTO NORTON SOUND ON SUNDAY THEN MOST AREAS SHOULD GET SOME
SNOW...AND THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR BLIZ CONDITIONS OVER ZONE 213.
IF THE LOW STAYS INLAND THEN LESS SNOW IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLING MOST AREAS STARTING TONIGHT/TOMORROW.

FOR THE INTERIOR...REMAINS OF THE OCFNT ASSOCD WITH
THE DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE LATE
TODAY. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT FOR MINIMAL WIND ADVISORY
IN THE USUAL WINDY PLACES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD WILL BE THE
VERY MILD TEMPS...WITH ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS THROUGH PASSES
WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF AS WELL IN THE HILLS SOUTH THE YUKON-TANANA
UPLANDS. SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN IN SHORT SUPPLY AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

RT DEC 06