Gale Warning 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
253 AM AST FRI DEC 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COAST MARINE
AREAS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE LOWER THAN
FORECASTS...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE
SURFACE REPORTS ARE SHOWING THAT WINDS IN THE BERING SEA
ARE BELOW GALE FORCE. SURFACE WIND PROGS...AS OPPOSED TO
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECASTS...HAVE NOTICEABLY LESS WIND
MORE ACCURATELY DEPICT THE CURRENT SCENARIO.

WE WILL TRIM EXISTING GALE WARNINGS DOWN TO SMALL
CRAFT OR BRISK WIND...AND STRIP OUT THE EXISTING WATCHES...
WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IN AKZ207 WHICH WE WILL ALLOW TO RUN TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THE MARINE AREAS WITH OPEN WATER ARE TOO
WARM FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...SO WE WILL DROP THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS AS WELL.

THE NEXT MAJOR LOW WILL BE TRACKING FARTHER TO THE
WEST...AND WINDS 25 KT OR MORE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PKZ210
FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WEST.

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
EASTWARD. THE SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN SOME IN AMPLITUDE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE CANADA BORDER THIS EVENING.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE
ALASKA RANGE WHERE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 INCHES MAY
OCCUR WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWEST CANADA MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
BE PREDOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

RF DEC 06